Virginia absolutely crushed Wake Forest yesterday afternoon, run ruling them right off the field 13-1 in 6.5 innings. The Hoos came into the tournament on a rare three-game losing streak after being swept last weekend at North Carolina. Virginia pitcher Tyler Wilson said it was important to "just flush it. Hit reset."
Speaking of fourth-seeded North Carolina, they gave up a 5-0 lead to fifth-seeded Miami, whose rally began with a 4-run sixth inning and finished with a 7-5 victory.
This has to come as a bit of a sigh of relief for Virginia fans after going 0-3 against the Tar Heels. With a win tomorrow against Miami, Virginia's odds of advancing to the championship game on Sunday would shoot up to 87.5% (based solely on possible, rather than probable, scenarios).
As it stands, Virginia's odds of advancing are at 50%, while Miami's is at 37.5% and UNC and Wake Forest are both sitting at 6.25% each (only one possible scenario for each). The full breakdown follows the jump.
With a hat tip to TheSabre.com poster "Kenny Saw," who originally laid out all the possible scenarios following Game 1, here's a breakdown of what could happen going forward:
| Scenarios | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Advancing Team |
| Scenario 1 | UVa | Miami | UVa | UNC | Miami | UNC | UVa |
| Scenario 2 | UVa | Miami | UVa | UNC | Miami | UVa | UVa |
| Scenario 3 | UVa | Miami | UVa | UNC | WF | UNC | UNC |
| Scenario 4 | UVa | Miami | UVa | UNC | WF | UVa | UVa |
| Scenario 5 | UVa | Miami | UVa | WF | Miami | UNC | UVa |
| Scenario 6 | UVa | Miami | UVa | WF | Miami | UVa | UVa |
| Scenario 7 | UVa | Miami | UVa | WF | WF | UNC | UVa |
| Scenario 8 | UVa | Miami | UVa | WF | WF | UVa | UVa |
| Scenario 9 | UVa | Miami | Miami | UNC | Miami | UNC | Miami |
| Scenario 10 | UVa | Miami | Miami | UNC | Miami | UVa | Miami |
| Scenario 11 | UVa | Miami | Miami | UNC | WF | UNC | Miami |
| Scenario 12 | UVa | Miami | Miami | UNC | WF | UVa | Miami |
| Scenario 13 | UVa | Miami | Miami | WF | Miami | UNC | Miami |
| Scenario 14 | UVa | Miami | Miami | WF | Miami | UVa | Miami |
| Scenario 15 | UVa | Miami | Miami | WF | WF | UNC | WF |
| Scenario 16 | UVa | Miami | Miami | WF | WF | UVa | UVa |