clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

ACC Baseball Tournament - Remaining Scenarios for Virginia and Pool A


Virginia absolutely crushed Wake Forest yesterday afternoon, run ruling them right off the field 13-1 in 6.5 innings. The Hoos came into the tournament on a rare three-game losing streak after being swept last weekend at North Carolina.  Virginia pitcher Tyler Wilson said it was important to "just flush it.  Hit reset."

Speaking of fourth-seeded North Carolina, they gave up a 5-0 lead to fifth-seeded Miami, whose rally began with a 4-run sixth inning and finished with a 7-5 victory.

This has to come as a bit of a sigh of relief for Virginia fans after going 0-3 against the Tar Heels. With a win tomorrow against Miami, Virginia's odds of advancing to the championship game on Sunday would shoot up to 87.5% (based solely on possible, rather than probable, scenarios).

As it stands, Virginia's odds of advancing are at 50%, while Miami's is at 37.5% and UNC and Wake Forest are both sitting at 6.25% each (only one possible scenario for each). The full breakdown follows the jump.

With a hat tip to TheSabre.com poster "Kenny Saw," who originally laid out all the possible scenarios following Game 1, here's a breakdown of what could happen going forward:

 

Scenarios Game 1  Game 2  Game 3  Game 4  Game 5  Game 6  Advancing Team 
Scenario 1 UVa  Miami  UVa  UNC  Miami  UNC  UVa 
Scenario 2 UVa  Miami  UVa  UNC  Miami  UVa  UVa 
Scenario 3 UVa  Miami  UVa  UNC  WF  UNC  UNC 
Scenario 4 UVa  Miami  UVa  UNC  WF  UVa  UVa 
Scenario 5 UVa  Miami  UVa  WF  Miami  UNC  UVa 
Scenario 6 UVa  Miami  UVa  WF  Miami  UVa  UVa 
Scenario 7 UVa  Miami  UVa  WF  WF  UNC  UVa 
Scenario 8 UVa  Miami  UVa  WF  WF  UVa  UVa 
Scenario 9 UVa  Miami  Miami  UNC  Miami  UNC  Miami 
Scenario 10 UVa  Miami  Miami  UNC  Miami  UVa  Miami 
Scenario 11 UVa  Miami  Miami  UNC  WF  UNC  Miami 
Scenario 12 UVa  Miami  Miami  UNC  WF  UVa  Miami 
Scenario 13 UVa  Miami  Miami  WF  Miami  UNC  Miami 
Scenario 14 UVa  Miami  Miami  WF  Miami  UVa  Miami 
Scenario 15 UVa  Miami  Miami  WF  WF  UNC  WF 
Scenario 16 UVa  Miami  Miami  WF  WF  UVa  UVa