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2012 ACC Tournament Vegas Odds: So you're saying there's a chance?

Virginia earned its highest seed in the ACC Tournament since 2007, when the Hoos were seeded second, bowing out to NC State in the Quarterfinals (Virginia's first game). This year, the Hoos are seeded fourth and will face the winner of Boston College or ...NC State. In fact, the Hoos haven't advanced past the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals since 1995, and are the only team in the conference not to have made the semifinals at least once since 2006. So what are the odds Virginia breaks this drought this year?

Vegas odds give Virginia a 12-1 shot at winning the entire ACC Tournament. North Carolina is a clear favorite, followed by, as the seedings would suggest, Duke, then Florida State. The odds of one of other eight teams winning the conference are 10-1. Here's what Vegas says:

Team Odds
North Carolina 1/2
Duke 12/5
Florida State 8/1
Field (Any other team) 10/1
VIRGINIA 12/1

Ken Pomeroy, whose system has favored Virginia for much for the season, actually places Virginia as the third favorite, over Florida State. The Hoos have a 67.4% chance of reaching the semifinals, a 20.6% chance of reaching the championship game, and a 10.4% chance of winning it all. Pomeroy also doesn't think Carolina is such an overwhelming favorite as Vegas would suggest.

Seed Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 North Carolina 100 94.2 71.8 52.2
2 Duke 100 77 48.2 19.8
4 Virginia 100 67.3 20.6 10.4
3 Florida State 100 63 29.9 9.9
6 Miami FL 82.9 34.8 13.9 3.7
5 N.C. State 90.6 32.2 6.6 2.4
7 Clemson 56.5 14.1 5.1 1
10 Virginia Tech 43.5 8.9 2.7 0.4
8 Maryland 64.6 4.4 0.9 0.2
11 Georgia Tech 17.1 2.2 0.3 0.02
9 Wake Forest 35.4 1.4 0.2 0.02
12 Boston Coll. 9.4 0.5 0.02 0.0009

Let's all take a moment to look at Boston College and appreciate that number.

And now let's take a moment to apologize to the Karma Gods for having done that.

The Cavaliers will take on either NC State or Boston College on Friday at 2:00 p.m. in Atlanta, and will do so without center Assane Sene, who has missed the past 13 games due to injuries, but was suspended yesterday due to a violation of team rules.


For more on N.C. State, visit Backing the Pack. For more on Boston College, visit BC Interruption.