NCAA denies hardship waiver for Arkansas State's Michael Dyer; where does that leave Virginia's Phillip Sims?

The NCAA ruled yesterday that Michael Dyer will not be playing football next year for Arkansas State. Great. Why do you care?

The former Auburn star RB, as you recall, was suspended from the team just before last year's Chick-Fil-A Bowl for a "violation of team rules," which we basically all now understand to be armed robbery and smoking up, both of which are apparently frowned upon. He got kicked off the team decided to transfer to follow former Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to Arkansas State, where Malzahn is now head coach. Dyer, originally from Arkansas, applied for a hardship waiver so that he wouldn't have to sit out a year to play.

When this news came out, a lot of people immediately drew comparisons to Alabama transfer and now-Wahoo Phillip Sims. At one point Bama's starting QB, Sims transferred to Virginia, reportedly to be closer to his sick father (Ed. note: There was a typo in an earlier edition of this post that stated that he was moving to be closer to his mother.). Sims also applied for a hardship waiver.

Prior to the Dyer news, most pundits believed that Sims would be granted the waiver, as the NCAA provides an exception for those moving closer to home due to family circumstances. Now, comparing Sims to Dyer, it's less clear.

But Dyer, as far as we know, didn't apply for a hardship waiver under the theory of being closer to home for family circumstances. By happenstance, he did end up closer to home, but that's not what the exception is intended to cover. Plus, even Coach Malzahn said at the time of the transfer that he "still will have to sit out a year."

Some of us got to talking on the Twitters: given this information, when do we expect to hear back on Phillip Sims's waiver request, and what do we expect to hear?

LambethField started out the gate with a guess of July 12, and that he did not expect the waiver request to be granted.

I followed up with July 11, but yes, I do think he'll be playing in 2012.

Brad Franklin of CavsCorner.com was closer to where I was, guessing July 10, and yes.

Michael Phillips of the Richmond Times-Dispatch, who had initially posed the question, guessed July 20 and no. He cited bureaucracy as the reason for the delay, and said it's about a 55% chance that Sims would be denied.

And in case you were curious, our own Justin Ferber says July 9 and yes, while Tim says July 13 and no (citing Friday the 13th and Rule 2(b)).

What do you all think? Will Phillip Sims be granted a hardship waiver and be eligible to play for the Hoos in 2012?