Earlier this week, Matt Pik took a look at UVA's schedule and discussed how we can judge the 2013 football season. Not one to allow the youngster to have the final word, the STL team took their seats at the Roundtable once again to debate our expectations and hopes for the season.
Jump into the comments and tell us: What do you expect this season? And what would it take for you to consider it a success?
Matt Trogdon: I think Virginia has 8 realistically winnable games this season. I think Oregon, Clemson, at Miami and at UNC are a bit out of reach at this point. That could change if we see an on-field product that's surprisingly better than expected.
I think Virginia can win 6 of the other 8 games -- VMI, Ball State, Duke, Georgia Tech, at Maryland and one more. If the Hoos knock off BYU in the opener, I think they'd be in great shape to go bowling. I realize that's a bit more optimistic than most predictions, but that's where I land.
Success for Virginia in 2013 can be achieved in one of two ways. The first is by going to a bowl game. Virginia has surprisingly good recruiting momentum, especially instate. The main knock on the recruiting trail at the moment surrounds London's job security. Despite the multiple statements of support from Jon Oliver, many see 2013 as a must-win season for London and opposing coaches can use that to recruit against Virginia. A trip to a bowl game would help answer those questions.
Secondly, and perhaps more important, Virginia needs to beat the mouth-breathers from Blacksburg. The talent gap has closed. Virginia was on the cusp of beating the Hokies last season. Virginia Tech has lost a good number of players to injuries and attrition, and there are rumblings that all isn't well within the program. The time to strike is now, and this just might be the year Virginia puts a win up in the rivalry.
Paul Guttman (Tiki): I think we've got a shot at winning 6 games. It'll take a vast improvement from the OL and a lot of guys on defense to really step up. Realistically, my expectations are that while we'll be improved, it may not show up in the W/L record.
A success is getting to the bowl game. Nothing else matters.
Brian Schwartz: I think we can expect 5 wins, with a good, reasonable "target" of 6 games and a bowl.
I grounded this by this using probabilities:
BYU - 40%, Oregon - 2%, VMI - 98%, @ Pitt - 40%, Ball St. - 75%, @ Maryland - 55%, Duke - 70%, GT - 40%, Clemson - 15%, @ UNC - 30%, @ Miami - 20%, VT - 40%
That gives me 5.25 expected wins. If we don't reach 5, that's kinda a disaster. If we exceed it, great. That said, if we don't get to a bowl, nobody will be happy, so let's please get to 6. As Tiki alluded to, if you don't make a bowl, it's really hard to consider that a success.
Brian Leung: I disagree with both of you that nothing else matters. I'm not all fancy with your mathstuffs, but I agree that a bowl game constitutes success. I don't think anyone can argue that we need 7 for this to be a successful year. But if we win 5, and one of those is a positive note over Virginia Tech to finish the season, are you going to be angry? You realize it's almost been a decade, right?
Will Campbell: BCS OR BUST
Leung: Is he allowed to speak outside of baseball season?
Caroline Darney: If we beat Virginia Tech, I'll consider it a victory. I'm only half kidding. I'm with Brian L. on this one. I'll take 5 (VMI, Maryland, Duke, BYU/Pitt, and VT) and be happy with it. Anything more than that is icing on the cake as far as I'm concerned. Orange and blue delicious frosting on a funfetti cake of defeating the Hokies.
Ten years. I was a first year. Ugh.
What's your take fans? Is it "bowl or bust" for UVA this season? What do you expect...and what is enough to consider "success"?