Last weekend the Hoos raveled to Winston Salem and dropped their first weekend series of the season. Not many saw it as a cause for concern; as they should not have. Many however saw it affecting UVa's National Seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. In Kendall Roger's latest projection, he has the Hoos falling from the top overall seed to the #3 overall seed. Baseball America hasn't come out with their projection, but still lists UVa as a lock for a National Seed in their Stock Report. So, does it matter?
I wanted to see over the last ten years what the history of the national seeds has been. Since we know college baseball didn't even start until 2004 when Coach O'Connor arrived in Charlottesville, I decided to start there.
First things first, no #1 seed has won the National Championship in the last ten years. Only twice has the #1 seed even made the final series ('04 & '09). The good news for 1 seeds is that they have made Omaha the most frequently out of the last ten years; getting there nine out of ten times. That lone time was 2007 when Vanderbilt lose to Michigan in the Regionals (We were opposite that Regional and would have hosted had we defeated Oregon St.).
If UVa wants to get to Omaha, which is the goal every year, earning that National Seed is very important. On average, 4.4 of the 8 teams that have gotten to Omaha have been a National Seed. Only three times have less than four National Seeds gotten to Omaha, but only twice have there been more than five. Omaha has never seen more than six get there.
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It seems rather counter-intuitive to think, but if the Hoos want to win the whole thing, maybe they don't want to be a National Seed at all. Over the last ten years, a National Seed has only won "the whole damn thing" twice. In 2009, #3 seed LSU beat #1 seed Texas in 3 games, and #4 seed USC beat #2 seed Florida.
Entering last weekend, the #1 seed appeared to be UVa's to lose. They might have lost it, but maybe it will end up being a blessing in disguise.