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Each week when we break down the matchup stats for the Streaking the Lawn preview infographic The Column, there are a couple stats that jump out where the Virginia Cavaliers have the statistical matchup advantage. Last week vs. Duke it was third downs and sacks, and against Boise State it was defensive passing yards. This week against the 1-5 North Carolina Tar Heels, it is much harder, because the 4-1 Hoos have the advantage straight down the column.
When UVA has the ball, they have the advantage across the board. Below is where both teams rank nationally:
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
| Scoring Offense | 63 | Scoring Defense | 102 |
| Yards Offense | 67 | Yards Defense | 114 |
| Passing Offense | 31 | Passing Defense | 73 |
| Rushing Offense | 105 | Rushing Defense | 121 |
| 3rd down Offense | 10 | 3rd down Defense | 84 |
| Passing Effeciency | 64 | Passing Effeciency Defense | 90 |
| First Downs | 69 | First Downs Defense | 120 |
| Sacks Allowed | 34 | Team Sacks | 66 |
| Tackles for a Loss Allowed | 57 | Tackles for a Loss | 72 |
The Cavaliers only rank 105th in the country in rushing yards, but UNC is even worse at rushing defense at 121st. The biggest advantage is in third down conversions in which Virginia is ranked 10th at converting 49.4% while the Tar Heels are allowing 40.4%, which is only 84th in the country.
On the flip side of the ball, the numbers are even more in the Hoos favor:
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
| Scoring Defense | 39 | Scoring Offense | 89 |
| Yards Defense | 24 | Yards Offense | 89 |
| Passing Defense | 27 | Passing Offense | 60 |
| Rushing Defense | 42 | Rushing Offense | 94 |
| 3rd down Defense | 11 | 3rd down Offense | 121 |
| Passing Effeciency Defense | 16 | Passing Effeciency | 99 |
| First Downs Defense | 39 | First Downs | 66 |
| Team Sacks | 24 | Sacks Allowed | 75 |
| Tackles for a Loss | 57 | Tackles for a Loss Allowed | 72 |
UNC is only 89th in offensive scoring and yards while UVA is in the top 40 in the defensive counterpart. Again the largest difference is in 3rd down conversions where the Tar Heels offensive ranks 121st out of 129 FBS teams, while the Cavaliers defense is 11th.
Other areas, like turnovers and penalties, also favor Virginia:
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | UVA | Category | UNC |
| Turnovers Lost | 3 | Turnovers Gained | 46 |
| Turnovers Gained | 78 | Turnovers Lost | 85 |
| Turnover Margin | 26 | Turnover Margin | 72 |
| Penalties per Game | 39 | Penalties per Game | 90 |
| Penalty Yards per Game | 50 | Penalty Yards per Game | 112 |
All these stats are would suggest a huge UVA win in Chapel Hill, but that is why they play the games.