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2017 ACC Tournament: Virginia’s Seed Outlook

With just two games left on the schedule, things are starting to clear up for Virginia.

NCAA Basketball: Duke at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

With just two games left in the regular season, it is about time for Virginia fans to turn their attention to next week’s ACC Tournament. We’ve provided up to the minute brackets of how things currently stand, but how might things look after Saturday?

It’s not crystal clear just yet, but here is what we know on Monday morning, February 27th:

  • UNC is going to be the #1 seed and BC is all but likely to be the #15 seed.
  • FSU, Louisville, and Notre Dame is one big cluster for the #2 - 4 seeds
  • Duke, Miami, UVa, VT, and Syracuse is another big cluster for the #5 - 9 seeds. (yes, they could jump into the above cluster, but more likely than not to stay)
  • Virginia will almost assuredly not be a Top 4 seed for the first time since 2010-11 (they could be a #4 seed but how that happens is really anyone’s guess)
  • Virginia will most likely fall into the No. 6 through No. 9 seed range

Clinching Scenarios

There are still too many games left in the ACC schedule to play out just how each seed could be achieved, but as the week progresses, we can re-evaluate.

As of right now, UVa can only clinch the No. 9 seed, and finish no lower than that by either of these two scenarios:

  • UVa beats North Carolina; or
  • Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech

Elimination Scenarios

Seed No. 4: By Wednesday, we’ll likely know that UVa is out of the 4 seed running. Here’s how that happens:

  • Miami beats VT AND Duke beats FSU; or
  • Louisville beats Wake AND Miami beats VT; or
  • Louisville beats Wake AND Duke beats FSU; or
  • Louisville beats Wake AND ND beats BC

Seed No. 5: The 5th seed goes hand in hand with the 4 seed for UVa because those above mentioned games also harshly affect UVa’s 5 seed chances. Here’s how:

  • Louisville beats Wake, ND beats BC, AND EITHER Duke beats FSU OR Miami beats VT

Seed No. 6: This is where things get sad. There is a 4 game scenario that could eliminate UVa for the 6 seed, but realistically, there is only one game that matters for UVa to still have a chance at the 6 seed:

  • North Carolina beats UVa

If the Hoos drop their game with North Carolina tonight, we will know a lot more than we do right now because the Hoos would only be eligible for the 7th, 8th, or 9th seeds for next week’s ACC Tournament.