Even with most teams around the country taking a break for exams, we still get some quality ACC Hoops action, perfect for throwing down some coin. Here’s where you can scratch your itch.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue (Indianapolis)
KP: Notre Dame +5, O/U 141
Vegas: Notre Dame +4.5, O/U 142
I’m going back to the well on fading Notre Dame. It didn’t work out last week as they lost at the buzzer at UCLA. This is a neutral spot, so no team has a distinct home court in this battle for Indiana supremacy, so I lean again to the best player on the floor and that is easily Purdue’s Carsen Edwards.
Pick: Purdue -4.5
NC State vs. Penn State (Atlantic City)
KP: NC State -2, O/U 146
Vegas: NC State -3.5, O/U 147
Here’s another matchup of Penn State’s elite defense facing off against an efficient ACC offense. This total seems very off to me. Penn State will slow down the Wolfpack, but it’s the Nittany Lions’ offensive ineptitude that keeps this game under the total. When Virginia Tech faced off against Penn State a couple weeks ago, the game went off with a 139 total. The score was 63-62. I see a similar result and we’re getting eight more points.
Pick: Under 147
Virginia Tech vs. Washington (Atlantic City)
KP: Virginia Tech -6, O/U 142
Vegas: Virginia Tech -6.5, O/U 141
It still pains me to say that Virginia Tech is really good. So, I might as well make money off it. To beat Washington and the 2-3 Zone, it takes a patient offense that can excel at hitting threes and that is exactly what the Hokies have been doing. Washington is 52nd KenPom, but I think Virginia Tech rolls further exposing the Pac-12 as not a very good conference.
Pick: Virginia Tech -6.5
Gonzaga @ North Carolina
KP: UNC -2, O/U 174
Vegas: UNC -2, O/U 175
Well this game should be fun. I’d like to look at the over, but I can’t bring myself to touching anything over 170. I find teams that score down low and put pressure on the North Carolina bigs who are more concerned with getting rebounds and running down court than playing defense have a tremendous amount of success against the Heels. Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke will feast and the Bulldogs won’t be scared of large, yet rather tame Dean Dome atmosphere.
Pick: Gonzaga +2
Virginia @ South Carolina
KP: Virginia -10, O/U 134
Queue up your auto-bets. Perhaps KenPom was impressed with South Carolina putting up 78 points against Michigan’s vaunted defense that he thinks the Gamecocks can do the same against Virginia. Umm, no. South Carolina is 156th in the country in offensive efficiency and 246th in effective field goal percentage. Plus they’re generally a defensive minded team under Coach Frank Martin, so I’ll be hammering this under pretty hard if it’s even close to 134.
Pick: Under 134
Season Total: ATS (9-5), O/U (6-4), Total (15-9)
*Note - A question came up last week as to whether or not I pick/bet every game. For the purpose of the preview, I try to limit my picks to five games, and I’ll generally preview only games featuring ACC teams playing against top-50 KenPom foes. If you have questions about a specific game or just want to talk betting, follow me on Twitter @Hooson_First and we can share a sweat.