ACC Basketball POWER Rankings: Virginia keeps separation from the rest of the league

Virginia lost its first conference game of the year Saturday, but still moved up to No. 1 in the AP Poll. It’s no surprise that the Hoos are atop our weekly ACC POWER rankings!

This week, 13 Streaking the Lawn staff members again tried to decipher the 14 lesser teams in the league. Scroll to the bottom for full rankings from each writer, as well as overall means and standard deviations for each team.

1. Virginia Cavaliers (24-2, 13-1, KenPom #1)

Completing a stretch of 7 games against top-50 teams (4 on the road) at 6-1 was an impressive feat for UVA (though fans would likely have desired the loss on a different day). The Hoos are rewarded with a weekend off, then games against GT and Pitt...so, essentially 2 weeks off.

2. Duke Blue Devils (21-5, 9-4, KenPom #5)

The Blue Devils were a 2-seed in the Selection Committee’s bracket reveal this week. Marvin Bagley has missed two games for Duke with a sprained knee, and his return is uncertain, though it shouldn’t be long, per Coach K. The team’s defense looked stingier without him, however, against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

3. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-7, 9-5, KenPom #10)

UNC has compiled a four-game winning streak, avenging an earlier loss to NC State in the process. The team has been clicking on offense, scoring over 1.2 PPP in each of their wins (a feat UVA has accomplished just once in ACC play, against Louisville).

4. Clemson Tigers (20-5, 9-4, KenPom #16)

Clemson drops two spots in our ranking after an overtime road loss in Tallahassee, which seems a bit harsh in my view. They’ll have a chance to make a statement - and show that they are built to weather the loss of Donte Grantham - when Duke visits on Sunday.

T-5. Miami Hurricanes (18-7, 7-6, KenPom #37)

The Canes seem to be on the fairly safe side of the bubble (a current 7 seed on BracketMatrix.com) despite drop games against BC and UVA this week. But their soft out-of-conference slate and lack of signature wins (their best road win is at Virginia Tech) could hurt them if they don’t finish strong. There really aren’t any NCAA locks in the ACC beyond the four teams above.

T-5. Louisville Cardinals (18-8, 8-5, KenPom #27)

The Cardinals swept a 2-game stretch at home against Georgia Tech and at Pittsburgh by a combined 57 point margin. (UVA is about to start the same series!) The end of Louisville’s season is brutal, with home games against UNC and UVA and road games at Duke, VT, and NC State.

7. Florida State Seminoles (18-8, 7-7, KenPom #27)

It’s a testament to Leonard Hamilton’s coaching job this season that FSU’s offense has actually improved this season, despite the loss of Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Issac and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. Their 15-point loss at Notre Dame this week is their first of the season by more than 7 points, which helps explain their relatively high KenPom ranking.

8. Virginia Tech Hokies (18-8, 7-6, KenPom #43)

The Hokies were the first team in AP Poll history to beat their opponent and see them rise to #1 in the polls, so they have that going for them. Tech is a weird team with the potential to pull off big upsets and look awful days later. They are the second-best shooting team in the ACC after Duke and the second-worst shooting defense team, before Pitt, but there’s been a high degree of variance in both numbers.

9. North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-9. 7-6, KenPom #55)

NC State, one of the ACC’s bubbliest bubble teams, picked up a huge road win against bubble peer Syracuse. After a couple of out-of-conference stumbles, Kevin Keatts has the Wolfpack in line for a winning ACC record despite one of its trickiest schedules, and has quietly put together one of the league’s better coaching jobs.

10. Syracuse Orange (17-9, 6-7, KenPom #50)

NC State’s big bubble win was also a big loss for Syracuse, who is living dangerously once again - they have vacillated between 9 and 10 wins the past 3 seasons and are on track for another .500ish record. They won’t really have any more opportunities for “bad losses” down the stretch, with games remaining at Miami, Duke, and BC and vs. UNC and Clemson.

11. Boston College Eagles (16-10, 6-7, KenPom #75)

BC isn’t completely out of the at-large discussion, but it would take an impressive ACC finish. With all five starters expected to return, next season could be their year to return to the Big Dance.

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (15-11, 5-8, KenPom #40)

The depleted Fighting Irish put together two solid home wins before falling at UNC. They have actually been fairly competitive in South Bend: 4-3, with losses in double OT, by 1, and by 5. But yikes, they have taken some beatings on the road.

13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-16, 3-11, KenPom #84)

Wake went winless on the road in ACC play in 2015 and 2016 and is winless so far this year, but luckily has trips to Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech remaining on its schedule.

14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-15, 4-9, KenPom #117)

After a promising 3-1 start to conference play, people started realizing that GT had a pretty solid roster; then the Yellow Jackets lost 8 of 9 games. The program has put together an amazing run of shooting incompetence. In the past 8 seasons, spanning 3 coaches, they have ranked in the top half of the nation’s 351 programs in eFG% just once...and barely, as they finished at #174 in 2016.

15. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-19, 0-14, KenPom #231)

KenPom’s odds of a winless season for Pitt are now up to 62%. Their only realistic shot at a win comes this Wednesday when Wake Forest heads to Pittsburgh for their stop on Kevin Stallings’ farewell tour.