ACC Basketball POWER Rankings: Virginia stays #1, but beware of Duke

Once again, UVA is a unanimous #1 in our weekly ACC POWER Rankings. This week, they are followed by unanimous #2 Duke and #3 UNC, both of whom are coming on strong as the regular season comes to the home stretch. The middle of the conference, where six teams have six or seven losses, looks much murkier.

This week, 12 Streaking the Lawn staff members again submitted ballots. Scroll to the bottom for full rankings from each writer, as well as overall means and standard deviations for each team.

1. Virginia Cavaliers (25-2, 14-1, KenPom #1)

Virginia looked a little rusty against a pesky Georgia Tech squad, but took care of business at JPJ. Despite having the ACC’s second-worst offense, the Yellow Jackets became the third conference team to score over a point per possession against the Hoos. The conference’s worst offense (and defense) awaits.

2. Duke Blue Devils (23-5, 11-4, KenPom #3)

Duke has committed to playing zone defense in Marvin Bagley III’s absense, and the team has responded in a big way, putting up it’s best defensive performances in ACC play (excluding games against Pitt) in the last three games. Can the Blue Devils keep it going defensively when Bagley returns? If so, they will be a scary postseason opponent.

3. North Carolina Tar Heels (22-7, 11-5, KenPom #7)

After dropping three consecutive games, UNC has now reeled off six consecutive wins. They’ve quietly passed Duke in conference offensive efficiency, as they’ve backed up their dominant offensive rebounding with some more stellar shooting performances.

4. Virginia Tech Hokies (20-8, 9-6, KenPom #28)

The Hokies rise four spots in this week’s power rankings, as they added Clemson to their list of big wins that includes victories over UNC and at UVA. They now have a 28% chance at earning a first-round bye in the ACC Tournament, per PlayoffStatus.com. Wahoo fans would probably love to see UVA avenge its Gameday loss in Brooklyn.

5. Clemson Tigers (20-7, 9-6, KenPom #17)

No team wants a three-game losing streak, but Clemson’s was more a function of a tough stretch in the schedule, as it fell at FSU and VT and vs. Duke.

6. North Carolina State Wolfpack (19-9. 9-6, KenPom #49)

After three straight single-digit wins, NC State now has the ACC’s highest “luck” rating on KenPom, just in front of Virginia Tech. Showing up in 94% of brackets on BracketMatrix.com, it looks like they would be safely but narrowly in if Selection Sunday was today. But it isn’t, and the Wolfpack have a few big bubble games still remaining.

7. Florida State Seminoles (19-8, 8-7, KenPom #26)

FSU beat Pitt at home last weekend, then had a bye, so they’ve had a nice long vacation before they start a tough road trip to NC State and Louisville. Winning one of those games would have Florida State fairly safely in the NCAA field.

8. Miami Hurricanes (19-8, 8-7, KenPom #40)

Miami’s bubble spot is a bit more precarious, though they’re road win at Notre Dame was a good one. Bruce Brown is expected to return to the Canes for the NCAA Tournament, which could also get them a boost from the Selection Committee.

9. Louisville Cardinals (18-10, 8-7, KenPom #38)

The Cardinals haven’t missed an NCAA Tournament that they have been eligible to play in since 2006, and they appear to be on the wrong side of the bubble right now after getting rolled by UNC and Duke. Remaining games at NC State and Virginia Tech and vs. Virginia are opportunities to turn that around.

10. Syracuse Orange (18-10, 7-8, KenPom #51)

Okay, one last bubble team. It’s Syracuse of course, the last team in the field according to BracketMatrix.com. They’ve had a strange month, picking up nice road wins at Louisville and Miami, but erasing them with rough losses at Georgia Tech and at home to NC State.

11. Boston College Eagles (16-12, 6-9, KenPom #82)

Me last week: “BC isn’t completely out of the at-large discussion, but it would take an impressive ACC finish.“

BC last week: Loses to Notre Dame and NC State.

Get ‘em next year, guys!

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (16-12, 6-9, KenPom #30)

Check out Notre Dame’s record, in and out of conference, and compare it to BC’s above. Then check out the KenPom ranking. The discrepency is a function of Notre Dame’s tougher out-of-conference, but also its seven single-digit ACC losses (9 overall). They are probably a tougher out than their record refects.

13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-17, 4-12, KenPom #87)

Congrats to Wake on picking up its first ACC road win! (Note: It was against Pitt

14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-17, 4-11, KenPom #123)

Georgia Tech actually looked pretty good against Virginia this week, led by an incredible game by Ben Lammers. There’s not much of an excuse for a team with Lammers and Josh Okogie to be so far behind the rest of the league in offensive output. (GT averages .95 PPP in ACC play, which put them in fourteenth place and a whole .06 PPP behind #13 Wake.)

15. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-21, 0-16, KenPom #229)

With games left against UVA and Notre Dame, Pitt is a virtual lock for a winless ACC year. KenPom projects Pitt to score 45 against Virginia tomorrow. I’m taking the under.