FanPost

How to Beat Virginia: 10 Threes and an Early Lead

Virginia went 31-2 in a dominant season where they stomped a mud hole in the ACC, winning both the regular season and ACC Tournament titles. Then, of course, there was the ‘Buster Douglas knocks out Mike Tyson’ game, but it doesn’t need to be Tony Bennett’s Bill Buckner moment – the game that defines his career. Virginia is absolutely loaded headed into next season and is well-positioned to continue their success if they can shore up a few deficiencies, most notably front-court scoring.

But there is a hole in Virginia’s defense that has been overlooked and will be exploited next season if Bennett can’t correct it.

There were six games this year where Virginia’s opponent made ten or more three-pointers: UMBC, UNC, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Lehigh, and Savannah State. Three of those six games, or 50%, were losses.

Made Three Pointers

Result

Halftime Score

Final Score

Lehigh

10

W

39-23

75-54

Savannah State

10

W

42-21

78-47

WVU

10

L

26-29

61-68

UNC

10

W

34-30

71-63

Virginia Tech

11

L

26-33

60-61

UMBC

12

L

21-21

54-74

Further, in three of those games, the opponent was tied or leading at halftime. All three of those games were losses.

This season, if you made ten or more three-pointers and were tied or leading at halftime, you beat Virginia. That’s it. Do those two things, and you beat Virginia.

Of course, three games is a tiny sample size, but it looks like validation of the conventional wisdom that the way to beat the packline defense is to shoot over it. That’s easier said than done, right? After all, Virginia ranked 9th in the nation in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 31% from beyond the arc.

And only 19 teams in the country averaged 10 or more made three-pointers per game this season. But the top 126 teams in the nation made eight or more three-pointers per game, and that statistic is only climbing as more coaches prioritize the long ball.

In Virginia’s first matchup with UNC, UNC attempted 23 three-points but made only 8, shooting 35% from deep, and lost 61-49. In the ACC tournament, UNC attempted 25 three-points and made 10, shooting 40% from deep. Of course, they still lost, 71-63.

But it was an ominous sign: Virginia, ranked 9th in the nation in only allowing 31% from beyond the arc, became quite vulnerable to the three-point shot late in the season. And UMBC exploited that, nailing 50% of their long balls on 24 attempts in the NCAA Tournament.

In fact, in Virginia’s last six games, their three-point defense was actually awful:

Made Three-Pointers

Attempts

Opponent Three-Point Percentage

Louisville

6

15

40.0%

Notre Dame

7

24

29.2%

Louisville

9

21

42.9%

Clemson

5

25

20.0%

UNC

10

25

40.0%

UMBC

12

24

50.0%

Total

49

134

36.6%

Virginia’s three-point defense for those six games would be ranked at 264th in the country at 36.6% three-pointers allowed. So while the headlines say Virginia is 9th in the nation in defending the three-pointer, opposing coaches saw a weakness and increased the volume of their three-point shots late in the season.

Opposing coaches caught on, especially coaches who played Virginia twice. In Virginia Tech’s first game against Virginia, they attempted 12 three-pointers. In their second game, they attempted 29. And they won.

In Louisville’s first game against Virginia, they attempted 18 three-pointers versus 21 in their second game. Clemson went from 20 attempts in their first game to 25 attempts in their second try. Louisville went from 15 to 21. UNC went from 23 to 25. Georgia Tech went from 11 to 13. Of the ACC teams that Virginia played twice, only Syracuse was flat: attempting 21 three-pointers in both matchups. But both Syracuse games were early in the season (the second game played on February 3). No opposing coach decreased his three-point shooting in his second game against Virginia.

Among ACC teams that Virginia played twice, the volume of the opponent’s three-point shots climbed by 28% in the second matchup, going from 105 attempts in the first games to 134 attempts in the second.

Tony Bennett must expect that every ACC coach has dissected those Virginia losses and identified that weakness. Both the volume and effectiveness of opponents’ three-point shooting climbed markedly late in the season and especially in teams’ second game against Virginia, and it will be a major part of the game plan against Virginia until Bennett finds an antidote.

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