ACC Weekend Betting Preview: Virginia’s showdown with Duke

After another good week, we’re back with a six-game Saturday slate and a single game on Sunday. Virginia @ Duke is the headliner in case you were wondering, which you weren’t considering you haven’t been living under a rock the past six years and you’re on a Virginia blog. I’ll start with that one in case you don’t want to read the rest.

Virginia @ Duke
KP: Duke -2, O/U 140
Vegas: Duke -2, O/U 137

I can’t believe this game opened at Duke -3.5, -4.5 in some places allegedly. Rightfully so, money came pouring in on the Hoos and hours later it was down to Duke -1.5. But, there’s been a little bit of yo-yo-ing, bouncing back up to Duke-3 and settling at time of publish at Duke -2. But enough about the line, I don’t think I can stomach sweating an ATS play on my Hoos. It would take a larger amount of money than I am able to bet for me to be happy with a close UVA loss that covers the spread. So, I again look to the total. Since UVA’s resurgence, the Hoos and Blue Devils have faced off six times. The following are the total number of points scored in those game (in reverse order from 2018 to 2014); 128, 120, 125, 132, 134, and 135. Granted Virginia’s offense is considerably better than it was in any of those years, so this could shoot out. But I like Virginia’s chances of slowing down the game, making Duke play in the half court and limiting their transition game. The total opened at 140 and I was able to get it that number. It’s down to 137, but I still like it. Basically anything 136 or over and I’m good with the under.

Pick: Under 137

North Carolina @ Miami
KP: Miami +6, O/U 156
Vegas: Miami +7 , O/U 158

Despite beating Wake Forest by double digits at home last Saturday, this Miami team is still one I can’t believe in until I see it. On the UNC side, I can’t tell if the Tar Heels are a top-tier ACC or not. However seven points, even on the road shouldn’t be too tough to handle. UNC will feast on the offensive glass against a Miami defense that ranks 250th in the country at allowing offensive rebounds.

Pick: UNC -7

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
KP: Syracuse -7, O/U 131
Vegas: Syracuse -7, O/U 133

I’m not going to be fooled by Syracuse’s 85-point outburst in regulation Monday against Duke. This team is not very good offensively. And while Pittsburgh has been coming along scoring points behind Trey McGowens, I still like for this to be a defensive battle. Add to that, Pitt’s resurgence has come entirely at home. I think it’s a close game but neither team really gets it going on the offensive end of the floor.

Pick: Under 133

NC State @ Notre Dame
KP: Notre Dame +2, O/U 154
Vegas: Notre Dame +2, O/U 153

When I first looked at this game I thought the KenPom prediction felt like a trap. Then the line opened Notre Dame +2 and then fell surprisingly to Notre Dame +1.5. And then it came back to two. I have to think the market is overreacting to NC State’s loss to Wake Forest and Notre Dame hanging tight with UNC. Nevertheless, this is probably one I will look back on kicking myself saying I should have known better, but Notre Dame just isn’t very good. Give me NC State and the small cover.

Pick: NC State -2

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech
KP: Virginia Tech -18, O/U 142
Vegas:Virginia Tech -17, O/U 143

VaTech gets the cure for what ails you in a home game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. I expect them to bounce back, but am worried about an 17-18 point spread. That’s just too many points, even against a team like Wake.

Pick: Wake Forest +17

Louisville @ Georgia Tech
KP: Georgia Tech +2, O/U 134
Vegas: Georgia Tech +5, O/U 135

Here’s another KenPom prediction that looks a tad bit off but this time, the Vegas line reflects it. Georgia Tech has played fairly well lately with wins over Wake Forest and Syracuse and a close loss at home to Virginia Tech. At the same time, Louisville did lose to Pitt just ten days ago. So I’m looking at the total. 135 seems a little low. The Cardinals have scored at least 80 points in each of their ACC games to date, and they’ll get a tempo-up game against the Yellow Jackets. Therefore, if the game is as close as KenPom predicts it will be, then this goes well over the 135.

Pick: Over 135

Sunday

Florida State @ Boston College
KP: Boston College +6, O/U 144

Is Florida State really this bad? I don’t think so. But that doesn’t mean they’re as good as their top-ten ranking may have suggested. I want this Boston College team to be good. I thought they were sneaky coming into the year, but they’ve let me down to this point. Maybe this is the game they steal. Maybe not. Either way, I can’t tell. At first glance the total of 144 seemed a tad high as both teams’ combined average points scored in ACC play doesn’t exceed 130. However, BC has played the four slowest teams in the ACC (UVA, VaTech, Notre Dame, and Louisville), and averaged close to 65 points in the process. In a tempo-up game at home, I think they can exceed 70. Add to that I think the total will actually be lower than 144 when it opens, so give me the over.

Pick: Over 144

Season Total: ATS (17-9), O/U (13-8), Total (30-17)