We got a terrible number last week on the under for the Hoos’ clash with Duke so the De’andre Hunter buzzer beater didn’t put us on the wrong side of a bad beat. Still, a 4-3 week is in the black. I don’t love a lot of the numbers on this week’s matchups as we’re probably getting to a point in the college basketball season where a lot is known about teams and the lines are getting more efficient. Nevertheless, seven more games gives us seven more chances to make money.
Virginia @ Notre Dame
KP: Notre Dame +12 , O/U 122
Vegas: Notre Dame +11.5, O/U 124
Here’s hoping the betting public stays afraid of a line this low. Just let it creep up. Notre Dame has been killed by injuries this season and have struggled to score in ACC play even against some of the defenses that aren’t particularly good. Add to that they rank 300th in the country in tempo, so Virginia won’t be tempted to up the pace on the road. This game profiles like the UVA game at Clemson with a much worse defense and UVA won that one 63-43. Finally, Notre Dame is one of the few teams that has a higher time of possession while on defense than they do on offense. That implies they’re susceptible to playing their opponents pace. And we all know Virginia will be more than happy to let that happen.
Pick: Under 124
Georgia Tech @ Duke
KP: Duke -22, O/U 144
Vegas: Duke -23, O/U 148
I’m probably going against my better judgement here, but as this line keeps creeping higher, I just can’t see these two teams going over. Tre Jones is supposed to be back for Duke, so how he factors into the game plan is yet to be seen. If he plays a prominent role, expect him to be able to lock down Jose Alvarado thus keeping Georgia Tech’s scoring down. If he’s rusty, maybe the Duke offense doesn’t fire on all cylinders. Either way, an 86-62 result seems a tad steep.
Pick: Under 148
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
KP: Louisville -11, O/U 137
Vegas: Louisville -10.5, O/U 141
I, like most around the ACC, have been late to the Louisville bandwagon, but this team is really impressive. Jordan Nwora has really come into his own, but overall this team is really balanced. Saturday, they get a return trip from Pitt who handed the Cardinals their only ACC loss on year so far. It’s only been a couple weeks, but Louisville is a different team, and Pitt may have shown that they’re better than we thought they’d be, but they’re still a year away from consistently competing with the top teams in the league.
Pick: Louisville -10.5
Clemson @ NC State
KP: NC State -7, O/U 149
Vegas: NC State -5.5, O/U 149
Coming into the year, I was very high on the Tigers, but they’ve continued to let me down. Their lone win was against Georgia Tech and while they’re losses to Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia are nothing to sneeze at, I would have liked them be better than a nine point loss at reeling Florida State on Tuesday night. I’m still a believer in NC State and looking at their schedule, this is a home game against a team they should beat sandwiched between a trip to Louisville and a visit from UVA. This is a must win for the Wolfpack and I think they play like it.
Pick: NC State -5.5
Boston College @ Wake Forest
KP: Wake Forest +1, O/U 147
Vegas: Wake Forest +1.5, O/U 148
Here’s a battle of the bottom of the ACC. The only difference in my opinion is one of these teams should be here, the other not so much. Call it irrational, but I still like Boston College. I like Ky Bowman, and I like for BC to be able to get the win in Winston Salem.
Pick: Boston College -1.5
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech
KP: Virginia Tech -7, O/U 135
Vegas: Virginia Tech -6, O/U 136
Syracuse is 5-1 in the ACC but somehow I just can’t shake the fact that this team has lost to Georgia Tech and Old Dominion on their home floor. Furthermore, when looking at their ACC wins, outside of the Duke win in Cameron, it’s not exactly a murderer’s row as Notre Dame, Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Miami don’t represent the best of the ACC on the year. Virginia Tech on the other hand has lost to Virginia and North Carolina, both on the road, and while their wins aren’t much better, they have dominated in those games. For Syracuse to get to their inevitable 8-8 conference record, they’re going to have to start dropping games and it starts this week.
Pick: VaTech -6
Florida State @ Miami
KP: Miami +3, O/U 145
This game is pretty simple for me. I don’t like Miami this season and Florida State has been a tremendous let down. Who comes out of this victorious is anybody’s guess, but these two teams have struggled to score in many of their games on the year, so 145 seems a tall task.
Pick: Under 145
Season Total: ATS (20-9), O/U (14-11), Total (34-20)