:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62811266/usa_today_10716473.0.jpg)
Non-conference play is behind us and conference play commenced in full this past weekend. There’s still a long way to go, but here’s a first look at this year’s bracket.
East / West Regionals
| East Regional | West Regional |
|---|---|
| East Regional | West Regional |
| 1. Duke | 1. Michigan St. |
| 16. Norfolk State / Abilene Christian | 16. Lehigh |
| 9. Mississippi | 9. LSU |
| 8. Maryland | 8. TCU |
| 5. Buffalo | 5. Marquette |
| 12. Lipscomb | 12. VCU |
| 13. Loyola-Chicago | 13. Hofstra |
| 4. Florida St. | 4. North Carolina |
| 3. Houston | 3. Gonzaga |
| 14. UC Irvine | 14. Old Dominion |
| 11. UCF | 11. Clemson / Utah St. |
| 6. St. John's | 6. Kentucky |
| 7. Louisville | 7. Auburn |
| 10. Cincinnati | 10. Creighton |
| 15. Georgia State | 15. Radford |
| 2. Texas Tech | 2. Kansas |
Midwest / South Regionals
| Midwest Regional | South Regional |
|---|---|
| Midwest Regional | South Regional |
| 1. Michigan | 1. Virginia |
| 16. Rider | 16. Wagner / Texas Southern |
| 9. Texas | 9. Villanova |
| 8. Seton Hall | 8. Iowa |
| 5. Nevada | 5. Ohio St. |
| 12. Florida / Syracuse | 12. Wofford |
| 13. New Mexico State | 13. South Dakota State |
| 4. Virginia Tech | 4. Oklahoma |
| 3. Wisconsin | 3. North Carolina St. |
| 14. Vermont | 14. Yale |
| 11. San Francisco | 11. Murray St. |
| 6. Iowa St. | 6. Indiana |
| 7. Minnesota | 7. Nebraska |
| 10. Purdue | 10. Arizona St. |
| 15. Northern Kentucky | 15. Montana |
| 2. Mississippi St. | 2. Tennessee |
Last Four In: Utah State, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida
First Four Out: Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas State, Washington
Bracket Thoughts
Tiers at the Top: Among the top eight teams in this ranking, there are three distinct tiers. The first tier is Duke, Michigan, and Virginia. You could give me any combination of those three teams and I wouldn’t argue. The next tier is the battle for the last number one seed between Michigan State and Kansas. Both those teams are bolstered by elite wins at the top despite both being two loss teams. Then finally, there is Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Texas Tech. Mississippi State is the surprise team among this group, but four KenPom A game wins have the Bulldogs with a sneaky good resume.
ACC Surprises: I’m surprised by the second tier of ACC teams. In my mind, Virginia Tech has a two/three seed resume and UNC is the number six team in KenPom but each come in a number four seeds. To add to the confusion is that NC State is actually a three seed. NC State is good, but they haven’t played anybody of note. Expect those seeds to flip flop quite a bit as the three get into their ACC schedules.
Mid-Majors in the Bracket: Gonzaga, Buffalo, Nevada, San Francisco, Murrary State. Through non-conference play, these teams built resumes strong enough to contend for at-large berths in this initial ranking. As long as the keep winning, I wouldn’t expect their seed lines to change that much. However any losses (hey Nevada) and their seed line can plummet. They also won’t have much opportunity to rise in the ranks. Though San Francisco and Gonzaga do play each other and one team sweeping the other (especially if it’s the Dons) could have a seeding. Honestly, I’ll be rooting for these guys as I’d much rather see them in March than a middle of the pack Power Five team with a .500 conference record.
The Pac-12: There is nothing groundbreaking about this statement, but this conference is TERRIBLE. Arizona State is the only Pac-12 school with a resume good enough for inclusion in these initial ranks. And what’s worse is they won’t have many chances to get quality wins to improve their seedings. Washington and Arizona are on the cusp, but will have to dominate the conference slate to move above where they are now. My prediction is the conference gets two teams into the tournament, but I wouldn’t be shocked if only their conference champion gets a bid.
What do you think? Who’s too high, who’s too low?