For the first all season, we’re above .500 in picks. So if you’ve been confused whether to follow or fade these each week, now would be a good time to go the other way. Some bye weeks are still lingering, but we’re getting closer to a full ACC slate. The Hoos are back from a bye week, and given my track record betting Virginia this season, I’m going to apologize in advance.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
Miami -2.5; Over/Under 43
Some might look at last week’s result and think VaTech really responded to adversity and proved they were still a capable football team. I just think Miami fell asleep on the 30 minute bus ride from Coral Gables to Hard Rock Stadium. The Hurricanes won’t be as listless out of the gate this week, but they are coming off a mentally draining loss. Virginia on the other hand is coming off a bye and I like Coach Mendenhall’s ability to have his team ready to play. And furthermore, hopefully a week of rest has Byrce Perkins a little more of his Bryce Perkinsy self and the Hoos shouldn’t have a problem, even as a dog.
Pick: Virginia +2.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Duke Blue Devils
Duke -17 ; Over/Under 49
One of these weeks, Georgia Tech is going to prove me wrong. Until then, they probably can’t make a spread high enough for me to back the Jackets. With back to back losses by 22 and 16 points respectively, I think the Blue Devils can score enough to win going away.
Pick: Duke -17
Florida State Seminoles @ Clemson Tigers
Clemson -27; Over/Under 59.5
I think Florida State’s narrow win over Louisiana-Monroe really threw us off their scent. They’re 3-2 on the year with losses to Boise State and our Hoos. Last time I checked, the Broncos and Cavaliers are pretty good football teams. Since their loss in Charlottesville, they’ve gone on to beat Louisville and NC State by an average of 14 points. They won’t come close to pulling the upset over Clemson, but they are talented enough and will care enough to keep the score under 27 points.
Pick: Florida State +27
Rhode Island Rams @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech -25.5 ; Over/Under 65.5
Yes, the Hokies went into Miami and beat the Hurricanes, but color me not impressed. If not for the points scored off turnovers to open the game, Miami rolls. Now VaTech and their resurgent season welcomes Rhode Island to Lane Stadium. It’s very possible the Hokies have found their groove and they can cover the 25.5, but I’m non comfortable laying that many points on a team that barely escaped Furman. But Rhode Island isn’t one of the top FCS teams either, so I’m not confident they can stay within the number. Therefore, I’m looking at the total. This number seems influenced by some Rhode Island scoring. But, their totals are a bit inflate in my opinion, including their game against Delaware where the Rams needed three overtimes to get to 36 points. The strength of the Hokies squad is still in the defense, so under 65.5 looks appealing
Pick: Under 65.5
Louisville Cardinals @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest -7; Over/Under 65.5
There’s just something I like about this Louisville team...But, I’ve been very impressed by Wake Forest as well. Seven points jumps out as a few too many, however I could also see Wake Forest just running away with this game (much like FSU was able to pull away from the Cardinals). Therefore, I think the total is in play. One of the things I love about both of these two teams is that neither is one-dimensional. Both teams can beat you through the air and on the ground, therefore, I like a lot of scoring and the game to go over.
Pick: Over 65.5