A week after getting above .500 for the first time all season, another winning week has us inching ever so close to being actually profitable. We’re full on in-conference and there’s enough to go off of that we know a lot about each of these teams. Unfortunately, if it’s not Clemson or Georgia Tech, all these teams are just blah, furthermore muddying the degenerate waters. Alas, on to the picks.
I’ve made a good living this season fading the Yellow Jackets and this week shouldn't be any different. Miami should cover the 18, but I like the under just a little more. The implied total in this one is 32-14. After holding Virginia to nine points a week ago, there is nothing that suggests to me that Georgia Tech can score ten points, much less 14. The only way this one goes over is if Miami gets a couple defensive TD’s, but that’s too hard to predict.
Pick: Under 45.5
After having a scare against North Carolina and a bye week to listen to everyone talk about possible chinks in the armor, the Tigers came our last week and boat raced the Florida State Seminoles. Louisville, while improved this season isn’t on the talent level of the Seminoles. With a regained focus, Clemson will come out and leave no doubt about the canyon between them and the rest of the ACC.
Pick: Clemson -24.5
If Boston College doesn’t lose by 24 to Kansas, the Eagles are 4-2 with losses by a combined five points to Wake Forest and at Louisville. NC State on the other hand is 4-2 and hasn’t been competitive in either of their losses on the road and their best win is at home over Syracuse (who, newsflash, may not be very good). Furthermore, at home the Eagles took care of Virginia Tech and I’m not sure the Wolfpack are any better than the Hokies.
Pick: Boston College +3
Since taking over three weeks ago, you could say VaTech quarterback Hendon Hooker has given the Hokies a bit of a shot in the arm. They went down to Miami and hung 42 on the Hurricanes benefited mostly by turnovers and short fields. Turnovers and short fields aren’t something UNC quarterback Sam Howell is immune to. Therefore, expect some scoring in this one. I like the Tar Heels to win, but in a high scoring affair.
Pick: Over 57
It’s a matchup of two of the top four defenses in the ACC with the Hoos checking in at number two and the Blue Devils right on their heels at number four. However, when these two teams get together there just seems to generally be a bunch of points scored. Given this total started at 48 and is now down to 45, there is value to be had. Furthermore, Hoos fans might riot if I keep getting Virginia wrong ATS.
Pick: Over 45
Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest -1.5; Over/Under 68
All season I’ve been high on Florida State’s talent. I think they’re a really good team. However, here they are at 3-3. The fact is, they’re not disciplined enough, well coached enough to show up ready to play each and every week. Last week, I expected them to give Clemson a game. Instead they fell 45-14. If they weren’t up for a game against the Tigers, what makes you think they’ll be up for a matchup with Wake Forest? Wake Forest will be ready and they’ll get the W.
Pick: Wake Forest -1.5