FanPost

ACC Shockwave: 2021 Virginia Men’s Basketball Recruiting

By John Shepherd -- October 29, 2019

Tony Bennett has a recruiting profile: he likes multifaceted players with some length who can shoot and defend.

Of course, any player who can do-it-all is going to be a hot commodity on the recruiting trail. Because Bennett hasn’t been able to land many top 50 recruits, he’s had to compromise.

DeAndre Hunter was a four-star recruit ranked 91st nationally. Hunter broke his leg in high school and missed his entire sophomore season, which diminished recruiting interest – he only had one high major offer prior to his junior year. That made him a classic Tony Bennett recruit: an undervalued asset.

Ty Jerome was a baby-faced coach’s kid with bad hips. Another undervalued asset.

Bennett’s sweet spot has been players ranked from 50-100, meaning they’re clearly talented enough to be on the national radar, but for some reason they aren’t considered truly elite.

Virginia Men’s Basketball Roster, 2021

Player

Year

Position

Height

Weight

247 Ranking

Jabri Abdur-Rahim

Sophomore

Wing

6'6"

185

37

Reece Beekman

Sophomore

PG

6'3"

170

55

Kadin Shedrick

RS Sophomore

C/F

6'11"

200

56

Casey Morsell

Junior

SG

6'3"

190

58

Kihei Clark

Senior

PG

5'9"

155

393

Francisco Caffaro

RS Junior

C/F

7'0"

233

121

Carson McCorkle

Sophomore

SG

6'3"

170

137

Justin McKoy

Junior

Forward

6'8"

225

227

Kody Stattmann

Senior

Wing

6'7"

187

333

On the 2021 roster, Virginia will boast four players in the top 60 nationally, including Jabri Abdur-Rahim, who’s ranked #37. On paper, based solely on recruiting ranking, this is a better team than the one that won the National Championship.

Of course, games aren’t won on paper, and recruiting rankings are just opinions based on limited exposure. Does anyone believe, for example, there were 90 players better than De’Andre Hunter in his class? But rankings are useful as a measuring stick for the kinds of kids who can be lured to Charlottesville.

Bennett is further handicapped (but he’d say ‘blessed’) by his need to find players who buy into his Five Pillars and can succeed in a serious academic environment.

But in his recruiting for 2021, Bennett has thrown his model overboard. He’s not pursuing players in the 50-100 range. Every single player he’s actively pursuing in the 2021 class is ranked higher than anyone on the team today.

But the last time Bennett tried a shoot-for-the-stars approach to recruiting, in 2017 and 2018, it blew up in his face. In 2017, Bennett was in hot pursuit of elite recruits like Michael Porter, Matt Coleman, Alex Barcello, Lonnie Walker, and even Trae Young. He failed to land any of them and was forced to settle for Marco Anthony and Frankie Badocchi.

The same story repeated in 2018: Bennett chased Jahvon Quinerly, Darius Garland, Coby White, Nassir Little, and even wasted some time on Zion Williamson. Instead, he landed Francisco Caffaro, Kody Stattmann, and Kihei Clark.

In 2019, he adjusted his sights and landed Casey Morsell, Kadin Shedrick, and Justin McKoy, who are all expected to play important roles. In 2020, he again targeted players in the 50-100 range, and landed Reece Beekman, Carson McCorkle, and Jabri Abdur-Rahim. Abdur-Rahim is ranked #37, but was ranked in the high 50s for most of the year prior to committing. There’s a lot of talent in those 2019 and 2020 classes.

So why would Bennett now go back to his failed strategy?

Three things have changed that create an opening for a new approach. First of all, he obviously won a National Championship. Secondly, he’s sending players to the NBA, including De’Andre Hunter as the #4 overall pick. Finally, his roster is absolutely stacked.

Most fans think the first two points are determinative, but it’s the third point that’s really driving the change in strategy. Players in the 50-100 range look at the talent on the roster in 2021 and don’t see any playing time available. Want to handle the ball? You’ve got to beat out Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman. Are you a combo guard, wing, or forward? You’ve got to compete with Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Casey Morsell, Justin McKoy, Carson McCorkle, and Kody Stattmann. And big men know that displacing Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro, both with years of development behind them, would be nearly impossible. Bennett has a well-known predisposition for experienced, veteran players who’ve earned their playing time in the weight room and on the practice court. If you’re a recruit who wants to play in 2021, Virginia is not the place for you.

But with nine players on the roster, Bennett can’t stop recruiting. Injury or early departure could transform Virginia’s prospects overnight. Bennett will use all four available scholarships if he can.

But he’ll use those scholarships differently. In 2021, Bennett is shooting for the stars. Bennett is now chasing some of the very best players in the country, all ranked among the top 50 nationally. Players who are not intimidated by the logjam of talent ahead of them on the roster.

But first of all, Tony Bennett has one remaining scholarship in 2020. If he uses it, he’s only got three scholarships left in 2021. If he can find the right player, Bennett would happily sign a spring transfer who needs to sit out a year. That gives him a year of development in the program while redshirting in 2020 before playing in 2021.

And then there is the surprise development that Moses Moody, ranked 42nd in the class of 2020, released a list of his top 3 schools that included Virginia. Surprising because he’d previously released a top 7 that didn’t include Virginia. And because he’s a Montverde Academy player, and Virginia has had no luck there. Moody has never visited Virginia, officially or unofficially, but he has been there for the NBPA Top 100 Camp this summer, where he was the star of the first day. If Moody does land at Virginia, that changes the targeting for 2021. But Bennett would take Moody, a self-assured shooter, in a minute.

As an aside, while Moody is a long shot, this is both the National Championship and the NBPA Top 100 Camp paying dividends: there’s not much chance Moody puts Virginia in his top 3 if he’s never been on the Grounds. But he was there for the Camp, and must have enjoyed it. Moody’s from Arkansas, and was considered an Arkansas lean until Arkansas made a coaching change. Moody didn’t just add Virginia to his top 3 as window dressing. Virginia has a chance, albeit slim.

But whether it’s Moody or a transfer in 2020, that leaves three open slots for 2021. Three open slots for a roster with no glaringly obvious holes. Bennett is in the enviable position of recruiting the best possible talent and not having to chase a particular position. But Bennett does appear to be primarily pursuing athletic wings in the 6’5" to 6’8" range who can shoot and take it to the basket. Of the ten players under serious consideration, seven are in that mold.

2021 Recruiting Targets

The ten players currently atop Bennett’s wish list are all among the 50 best recruits in the nation. These are the names you need to know – and no ‘undervalued assets’ on this list. Landing just one of them would be a recruiting coup. More than one? Shocking. Filling all three open scholarships with names on this list? Downright nasty.


1. Trevor Keels

Keels is a solidly-built 6’5" 200 pound shooting guard who plays for Paul VI (Fairfax, Va) and Team Takeover on the Nike EYBL circuit with offers from Florida, Georgetown, Villanova, Oklahoma State, Miami, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Butler and Marquette. When you watch Keels play, you see some Malcolm Brogdon. He’s tough, he can score and defend, and he’s got that Brogdon-like combination of power and skill.

Keels is ranked #34 nationally and has an offer list to match that lofty ranking. Basketball royalty like Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, UNC, and Duke haven’t offered yet, but it’s only a matter of time until they put a ‘strong-ass’ offer together. Does Virginia really have a chance?

Virginia is well-positioned. Keels not only visited Virginia for the National Championship ring ceremony, he stuck around to watch the football game the next day, and even joined the students in rushing the field after the victory over Florida State. Stalkers have also seen him in Virginia garb in his Insta feed.

Keels appears to be Tony Bennett’s top priority in the 2021 class. But could Moses Moody, the late-arrival 2020 SG, crash this party and take his spot?

Virginia Odds: High

2. Efton Reid

Efton Reid is a seven-footer from the Steward School in Richmond ranked among the top 30 nationally. That’s right: another highly-ranked Richmond recruit flirting with Virginia. We’ve seen this show before, right? Virginia never lands Richmond players.

Reid is a skilled, high-motor big man who collected his first scholarship offer in the eighth grade. He’s reportedly got offers from everyone, but hasn’t publicized any of them -- he’s kept his recruitment very quiet.

Reid, who models his game after Tim Duncan, did share what he’s looking for in a college, explaining, "I look at the system and what kind of shots I’m going to be taking, and whether they develop bigs to go to the NBA."

Virginia, of course, has no history putting big men in the NBA, unless, of course, you consider superstar Ralph Sampson, which is ancient history to a teenager. Reid is not a finished product and does need development to get to the NBA. It’s a fair question: is Virginia the right place for that development?

Despite that, Reid came to Virginia’s ring ceremony with Trevor Keels, but didn’t stay for the football game. His presence at the ring ceremony is a pretty good sign of the Virginia staff’s interest in the dominant big man. But does he return that interest?

In a recent interview following a Kentucky in-home visit, Reid’s yes-and-no answer about Virginia’s offer sent some Virginia fans to the fainting couch. But most insiders think Virginia is the leader for Reid, if only narrowly.

One probably-meaningless data point: Bennett needs a big man in the 2021 class, but Efton Reid is the only player at his position Virginia is currently recruiting. Bennett will only have two big men, redshirt junior Francisco Caffaro and redshirt sophomore Kadin Shedrick, in 2021. That’s thin. It’s conceivable (but not likely) that one or both could leave early to play professionally, and, of course, there is always the injury bug. Bennett needs another big man.

So one of two things must be true: Bennett is moving away from traditional big men in favor of small ball, or he thinks he’s got a really good shot with Efton Reid.

Virginia Odds: Medium


3. Caleb Furst

Caleb Furst is a 6’8" banger who plays center in his Indiana high school but projects as a forward. Furst looks like Joey Hauser: a clean-cut, solidly built Midwesterner.

Currently ranked in the top 30 nationally, Furst is tough and physical with a high motor and can finish through contact. When he can’t attack the rim, he’s already got a nice midrange jumper, like a young Mike Scott. He’s an inside-out player who’s working on extending his range.

And Furst is a lefty. Bennett loves his lefties.

Furst recently visited Virginia, and later commented that he was working on improving his defense: "I really want to make an emphasis on improving my defense. Kind of working on becoming I guess I’d say a lockdown defender," Furst said. "Be able to guard more of the positions, especially 3-5."

A sudden interest in defense after meeting with the top defensive program in the country? Sounds like Tony Bennett got in his ear.

Corey Evans thinks Furst will ultimately decide between Virginia and home-state Indiana. But it’s not clear how close Furst is to making a decision, and Michigan State and Purdue, among others, are still in the hunt. Furst has an official visit scheduled with Michigan State in January.

Virginia Odds: Medium

4. Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson is a 6’6" California wing who’s long and lean and gets to the rim effortlessly. On film, he doesn’t look explosive – he appears to glide right through defenses. He’s recently visited Arizona and Washington and holds offers from a who’s-who of West Coast schools.

Watson is ranked among the top 30 players in the country and may go higher. He’s grown from 6’3" in January to 6’6" in June. And he’s not just a slasher: he can shoot, he can rebound, and he can block shots out of the gym. He flirted with quadruple-doubles in several games for Long Beach Poly and his AAU squad The Truth.

Watson doesn’t have a Virginia offer yet, but he’s scheduled an official visit to Virginia on November 8-10th and will almost certainly leave with one.

Virginia Odds: Low

5. DaRon Holmes

DaRon Holmes is a 6’8" power forward out of Goodyear, Arizona.

Holmes has tantalizing potential but is still pretty inconsistent at this stage, maybe because of the level of competition he’s faced. He’s long and skinny; not a banger inside. He’s at his best off the bounce where he can create separation and get his shot. He’s also a great passer with good vision.

Holmes was a late invitation to the recent USA Basketball National Junior Teams training camp in Colorado. He described the eye-opening experience: "It's been challenging. Everybody up here is really good. Coming in as a 4 star recruit I want to prove myself. It's really difficult, very challenging, defensively and offensively. There are some ballers out here. Everybody up here is really good at something. It's just a good experience and making me better."

Because he’s inconsistent, rating services are confused about him. Some have him as a top 40 player; others have him pegged around 100.

Coaches, however, are not confused – the best coaches think he has a very high ceiling. Holmes has offers from Arizona, Kansas, and Texas Tech, among many others. And on October 7th, Tony Bennett extended an offer, so he clearly thinks more of Holmes than the recruiting rating services. Holmes has already visited Kansas and Arizona. Beating Arizona for a Phoenix kid? That would be impressive.

Virginia Odds: Low

6. Isael ‘Isa’ Silva

Isa Silva is a 6’3" California point guard who’s rocketed up to the top 30 nationally. Don’t let his looks fool you – despite his curly-haired choir boy appearance, Silva is competitive, athletic, and quick.

Silva plays like Ty Jerome – he’s got an angry underdog feel to his game even though, unlike Ty, he’s at the top of recruiting wish lists. He’s a high IQ, crisp-passing point guard who controls the game – and he can shoot from deep. And he’s a legit 6’3".

Silva, the "next Ricky Rubio," is the son of a Mexican immigrant and appears to have an immigrant’s mindset: hard work, hard work, hard work.

Could Silva be the latest Cali point guard that Tony Bennett lures east? Don’t bet on it. With his strong family ties, he’s likely to stay out west. He’s taken an official to Stanford, who appear to be in the lead, and an unofficial to Arizona’s Red and Blue game.

While Silva is a long-shot, there are rumors he is considering visiting Virginia. And Silva does have a connection to the program. He’s played with Jabri Abdur-Rahim, who lived in Sacramento while his father was an assistant coach with the Kings, including three years ago on a 15U team at Adidas Uprising in Vegas. Reportedly, Abdur-Rahim has been recruiting Silva.

Adbur-Rahim and Silva Playing Together

And Virginia now has another asset in Sacramento -- can Kyle Guy help with the recruiting?

Virginia Odds: Low

7. Carter Whitt

Carter Whitt is a 6’3" point guard from North Carolina with high-level court vision, decision-making, and shooting touch. He’s ranked in the top 50 nationally, right in the Virginia sweet spot. And for a long time, Carter Whitt looked like a commit-in-waiting for Virginia. He’s visited multiple times, including for College Game Day against Duke last season.

Whitt flirted with the idea of reclassifying into 2020, and ultimately decided to remain in 2021. But since Virginia landed Reece Beekman, Whitt’s interest seems to have cooled. He’s now regarded as an NC State lean.

Virginia Odds: Low


8. Trey Patterson

Trey Patterson is a 6’8" wing forward from New Jersey currently ranked among the top 30 players in the country. He’s a compactly-built 6’8" but pretty rugged. He’s an aggressive defender and rebounds well. On offense, he handles the ball like a point guard, he’s crafty around the basket, shoots well, and is a decent passer.

At the NBPA Top 100 Camp, he averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds against top competition.

In middle school, Patterson was in the conversation to be considered the best player in the nation. He isn’t that, but he’s probably the most versatile player of his size in the nation. He’s tumbled out of the top 15 but remains the best player in New Jersey.

Patterson doesn’t yet have a Virginia offer and no plans to visit, but he is on the staff’s radar. Of course, he’s on everyone’s radar.

Virginia Odds: Low

9. Quincy Allen

A 6’6" wing out of Maret School in DC, Quincy Allen can score from all three levels. He’s a great shooter with good mechanics and footwork. He’s probably the best all-around shooter that Virginia is evaluating, and there is always room on a Tony Bennett roster for a great shooter.

But Allen is more than a shooter – he’s versatile, which is obviously popular in positionless basketball. And Allen plays defense. "Shot making, energy, IQ, defensive stops," are what he believes set him apart. He’s ranked among the top 30 players in the nation because of that versatility.

But unfortunately for Virginia, Allen says he prefers a fast-paced program.

Allen says NC State, Stanford, and Syracuse lead in his recruitment. When asked why those three, he responded "location." Of course, those three schools are in wildly different locations, ranging from snowy upstate New York to the California coast.

Virginia hasn’t offered, and no visit appears to be in the works.

Virginia Odds: Low

10. Max Christie

A 6’6" shooting guard from Chicago who’s humble, poised, a top student, and a devastating top 10-ish talent? Sound perfect, right? Max Christie, a skinny 6’6" and still growing -- maybe up to 6’8" -- is the son of two athletes. Christie's mother, who’s 6’5", was a 1,000-point scorer at Northwestern. His father, Max Sr., also played college ball and is now a pilot. Christie’s well-grounded priorities are family, faith, and schoolwork.

If ever there were a five-star player who sounded tailor-made for Virginia, it’s Christie. Virginia is putting a good effort to chase Christie.

The bad news, however, is that he’s a lifelong Duke fan who got his long-awaited Duke offer back in August.

Virginia Odds: Low

Summary

Those ten players are currently at the top of the Virginia wish list. History tells us that will change; mercurial teenage decision-making means yesterday’s sure-thing is tomorrow’s lost cause. But the caliber of players Bennett is chasing is higher than ever, and so are his chances of landing one.

Many fans look at the 2021 roster and conclude that with nine solid contributors already in place, any 2021 recruits are just cherries on top. But there’s more at stake than just cherries. If Bennett succeeds with this caliber of recruit, it fundamentally changes his program.

When Bennett came to Virginia, he correctly diagnosed that he couldn’t compete on the recruiting trail with schools with built-in advantages like Duke, UNC, and Louisville (including, of course, the advantages that come from cheating). So Bennett built a program designed to take less talented players, develop them over time, and then play as a team to beat a hyper-talented but short-term rent-a-team like the "Brotherhood" in Durham.

But what if Bennett can compete with Duke or UNC and the rest for the best players in the nation? What if Bennett can erase the talent gap?

Obviously, Bennett’s offensive and defensive strategies would change dramatically. All that moaning about Virginia’s pace? Tony Bennett is perfectly capable of designing an offense that can run you out of the gym. Even the much-loved packline would be transformed to take advantage of athleticism and explosiveness that the best players bring.

Virginia already has better development, better training, better facilities, better culture, and better coaching than UNC or Duke. And if Virginia also had better talent? That’s check mate. Game over.

If three of the players on this list join Virginia’s recruiting class of 2021, it’ll send a shockwave around the ACC.

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