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ACC Football Betting Preview: Week 11

12 games over .500 and rolling into November

NCAA Football: Virginia at Georgia Tech Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

After another week of solid picks, we’re back with a full slate of ACC games. The ACC is still more confusing than ever, but narrative street rules the day this week as we have fired coaches, underrated(?) teams, and spots for let-downs. All in all it’s the epitome of why betting college football isn’t easy and they keep building hotels in Vegas. On to the picks

Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles
Boston College -2.5; Over/Under 63.5

And just like that, the Willie Taggert era at Florida State is over. At times like these, you have to wonder how the team will respond. Were they just fed up playing for him? Or was this a case where regardless of what Taggert did, the players just weren’t responding. I think it’s the latter, so there’s nothing to make me believe that they’ll all of a sudden play better now that he’s gone.

Pick: Boston College -2.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia -16; Over/Under 46

So, last week was the good offensive game plan. What’s it going to be this week? As I mentioned last week, it was never the talent or the exectution. It was always the scheme, and to be bad at scheming is a choice. Perhaps the Hoos righted the ship last week. Perhaps not. But back at home against an inferior Georgia Tech team, I think Virginia can score. The only way this goes under is if the Yellow Jackets fall short of their implied 15 point team total.

Pick: Over 46

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech +2; Over/Under 61

I’m stumped by this game. Wake Forest is the better team, however every time we’ve counted the Hokies out, they’ve found a way to keep things close. And every time we trust them, they’ve let us down. They’re likely getting a lot of steam from their near upset of Notre Dame last week and this game is at home. Therefore, you have to think that Vegas actually thinks Wake Forest should be favored by more. Despite their record, only UNC is a win that somewhat impresses me for the Hokies. This will be one of the better teams they’ve faced all season and I’m not sure they’re up for it.

Pick: Wake Forest -2.5

Louisville Cardinals @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
Miami -6.5; Over/Under 49

I have to tip my hat to Miami for taking down Florida State last weekend. But going forward, that win meant more about the current state of Florida State than it did about Miami. Louisville will continue to play hard the rest of the season and this is exactly the type of game they can not only compete in, but perhaps win. The Hurricanes will need to protect against an emotional letdown, and I’m not sure they can.

Pick: Louisville +6.5

Clemson Tigers @ N.C. State Wolfpack
N.C. State +33 ; Over/Under 53.5

Fifth? Fifth? That was Clemson’s ranking in this week’s College Football Playoff ranking. You think they’re happy about that? Yeah, me neither. It’s a popular narrative that Clemson will be looking to make a statement against NC State. That’s already baked into the line. Everyone is going to be betting Clemson big. Well, sometimes the obvious plays are obvious for a reason. Clemson rolls and shows everyone the reigning National Champs are still here. Also, NC State is pretty terrible this year.

Pick: Clemson -33

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Duke Blue Devils
Duke +7.5; Over/Under 51

Are we sure Notre Dame is good? After needing a last minute drive to beat the Hokies, the Fighting Irish travel to Durham for a night game against Duke. I just wonder what this line would be if Notre Dame doesn’t struggle against Virginia Tech. It’s not as if Duke has shown us anything to be really excited about lately. Outside of their demolition of Virginia Tech, they’ve been rather pedestrian against UNC and Pitt while getting shellacked by our Hoos. Despite looking like world beaters against Virginia in the second half, Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t been all its cracked up to be. Therefore maybe the total is the way to go. Duke will score and Notre Dame should be able to score a few points as well. Give me the over

Pick: Over 51

Record: 44-32-1