It’s been a great year for betting, overcoming a slow start to finish the regular season 14 games over .500. Given there’s only ten more ACC games left, I’m guaranteed a winning record on the year. So, I’ve got that going for me.
With so many games over the next week, and line movement being a given, I’m going to break this into two parts. Part One takes you through Saturday’s College Football Playoff Semifinal, while Part Two picks up with the Hoos in the Orange Bowl. Enjoy this time and let’s go make some money.
Miami is still my biggest disappointment of the year. Not only did I have them winning the ACC Coastal Division, but their win over the Hoos still has me scratching my head. They were bad all season and they were bad in that game, but yet they still got the win. Still, Louisiana Tech isn’t in the same class as the teams Miami plays week in and week out (which itself says something). The only way they don’t get the cover is if they don’t show up emotionally. While I do put that outcome at 48%, it’s still the better play to back to Canes.
Pick: Miami -7
This line keeps creeping toward the Panthers. It opened at Pitt -10.5 and I thought that was a fair number. However, now that it’s up to -13 with the over/under holding steady, I like the total here. Eastern Michigan feasts on the sieve-like defenses of MAC-tion, but these Panthers are a different animal. Despite Eastern Michigan playing a relative home game in Detroit, I think Pitt has their way in the trenches and can hold the Eagles under their implied total of 18. Given 13 is a lot of points, I think the game stays under 50.
Pick: Under 49
With Navy, Memphis, SMU, and Central Florida all having good seasons out of the American Athletic Conference, Temple kind of flew under the radar. They were able to pick up Power Five wins over Maryland and Georgia Tech (though those teams ended up being pretty bad) and a conference win over Memphis. I think they can hang with North Carolina who might have played their best football in September and October. Add the Tar Heels’ aptitude for playing close games and I’ll take the 5.5.
Pick: Temple +5.5
I’ve watched enough college football over the years and have seen this movie plenty of times. On one hand you have a perennial power mired in a two-season slump going up against a team looking at their best season in over a decade. It’s a simple formula that works more often than not. I like the Deacs for the outright win, but I’ll take the points here.
Pick: Wake Forest +4
Let me see. Clemson went undefeated last season, thrashing Alabama in the Championship. They entered the season number one after returning their Heisman-hopeful quarterback and key weapons all over the field. They went undefeated, only being challenged once, and somehow they’re not the number one seed in the College Football Playoff? I don’t get it. That’s nothing against Ohio State, but I like the Tigers to win this one and a match up against either Oklahoma or LSU.
Pick: Clemson -2