Vegas Odds: Your Gambling Guide for February 2

As if February basketball being upon us wasn’t enough, we get a bonus ACC game this weekend with Duke hosting St. John’s on their ACC bye week. That means all 15 teams are in action and we get eight games to bet on this weekend. There are some massive ACC pecking order implications on the line with Louisville hosting North Carolina, NC State hosting VaTech, and Boston College hosting Notre Dame in the race to the bottom. So let’s get to the action.

Miami @ Virginia
KP: Virginia -22 , O/U 128
Vegas: Virginia -19.5, O/U 128

As long as Vegas is going to keep giving us totals in the upper 120s in ACC play, I think you just have to keep going back to the under. Miami is so limited in their personnel this season that I just don’t know where their scoring comes from. On the Streaking the Lawn Podcast this week, Paul noted that this was the game Kihei Clark was recruited for. I think he and the Hoos will keep Chris Lykes in check and beyond that, there just isn’t too much to like from the Hurricanes.

Pick: Under 128

Georgia Tech @ Florida State
KP: Florida State -10, O/U 132
Vegas: Florida State -12, O/U 135

These two teams baffle me. Based on their personnel, Florida State should be really good and based on their personnel, Georgia Tech shouldn’t be very good (good enough to cover an 12 point spread at least). But here I find myself thinking that’s just too many points for Florida State, even at home. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been winning necessarily, but they keep games sloppy and are able to escape with a cover.

Pick: Georgia Tech +12

St. Johns @ Duke
KP: Duke -19, O/U 161
Vegas: Duke -17, O/U 161

Thanks to Duke for scheduling a non-conference game on their bye week and giving us an even eight ACC games. Saturday they renew their annual rivalry with St. John’s who I like a lot. It isn’t often that you can make an argument that the second or even third best player on the floor plays for the Blue Devils’ opponent, but that is the case today with the Red Storm’s Shamorie Ponds. Add to that Mustapha Herron and LJ Figueroa make this team a formidable non-conference test. I’d be shocked to see St. John’s pull off the upset, but there is no reason to believe they can’t stay within 17.

Pick: St. John’s +17

North Carolina @ Louisville
KP: Louisville -2, O/U 156
Vegas: Louisville +2, O/U 156

Just three weeks ago, the Louisville Cardinals went into the Dean Dome and laid the smackdown on UNC by the score of 83-62. So logic would hold that the Cardinals can take care of business when the Tar Heels visit Louisville Saturday. But I just don’t see that happening this weekend. I’m willing to chalk up that first game as an unexplainable one game anomaly. That isn’t to say I don’t think Louisville is good, it’s just that I don’t think UNC is that bad. Since that game they’ve blasted Virginia Tech at home and soundly defeated Georgia Tech in Atlanta. A Georgia Tech team that is pretty pesky as I noted above. So I like for UNC to continue playing strong basketball and pick up the road win.

Pick: North Carolina -2

Virginia Tech @ NC State
KP: NC State +1, O/U 155
Vegas: NC State -2.5, O/U 151

These two teams have the reputation for playing up and down basketball, but each has shown the willingness to slow it down once they get into the half court. If NC State doesn’t get a steal, they’ll defend through the end of the shot clock and Virginia Tech uses its ball-hawking d to pressure the ball relentlessly forcing longer possessions. Add to that the prospect of VaTech being without Justin Robinson and don’t think either team gets to 75.

Pick: Under 151

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
KP: Pittsburgh +1, O/U 131
Vegas: Pittsburgh +3, O/U 136

I’m going to stay on brand here and continue to fade the Orange. The shine from Pittsburgh emerging as a surprise team is off in recent weeks, but that’s in part because they’ve played three of their last four games on the road with the only home game coming against Duke. I’m willing to forgive a four game losing stretch. But now they’re back at home against the Orange who’s been shooting lights out from three lately. I don’t think that travels and the Panthers keep this one close, perhaps even picking up the straight up win.

Pick: Pitt +3

Notre Dame @ Boston College
KP: Boston College -2, O/U 142
Vegas: Boston College -2.5, O/U 144

This matchup is pretty simple to me. Both teams are among the bottom of the ACC, but the home team has only a small cover with the best player on the floor. I’ll take Ky Bowman and the Eagles at home.

Pick: Boston College -2.5

Sunday

Wake Forest @ Clemson
KP: Clemson -14, O/U 138

To say Clemson has been a letdown this season would be an understatement. That being said, they’re 2-5 ACC record may not be as bad as it might seem. The five losses have come to Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, Florida State, and NC State. All five you could argue were games the Tigers were expected to lose. Then when they have played the bottom of the ACC, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, they’ve won by 12 and 13 points respectively. At home I think the Tigers are able to take care of Wake Forest even with the points.

Pick: Clemson -14

Season Total: ATS (23-10), O/U (16-12), Total (39-22)