Vegas Odds: Your Gambling Guide for Feb 23rd

Well, it wasn’t a losing week. I’ll admit, picking the NC State/Duke under last week was a mistake. Regardless, a 3-3-1 week kept us in the black. Let’s try to get back on the train. Hoos up for 7-0?

Virginia @ Louisville
KP: Louisville +5, O/U 123
Vegas: Louisville +6, O/U 125

Last week, I said I wanted to wait and see how Louisville would respond to their collapse against Duke, and early returns are...not good. First they squandered a cover on Saturday, up eight with 35 seconds remaining, they needed a Jordan Nwora block on Marcquise Reed in the final second to escape with a one-point win. Then they got run out of the gym at the Carrier Dome Wednesday night falling 69-49 to Syracuse. Perhaps they are what we thought they were and despite the strong start to conference play, they’re just a well coached team constructed of players we really hadn’t heard of coming into the year. As far as Virginia is concerned, after a couple ho-hum games that left a lot to be desired, I expect the Hoos to get things together as they look to the stretch run.

Pick: Virginia -6

Boston College @ Clemson
KP: Clemson -11, O/U 135
Vegas: Clemson -10.5, O/U 132

Despite having beat Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest (the dregs of the conference) by double digits at home this season, I just can’t stomach laying eleven on the Tigers. Boston College hasn’t lost my more than eleven on the road this season to any team not named Duke, so I expect them to at least keep it around ten.

Pick: Boston College +10.5

Georgia Tech @ Miami
KP: Miami -6, O/U 128
Vegas: Miami -7, O/U 129

Miami has three conference wins on the season. They’ve all come at home, and they’ve all come against the bottom half of the ACC. Last time I checked, Georgia Tech is in the bottom half of the ACC. Seven is a lot of points, and I’d feel more comfortable with a point or two less, but the Yellow Jackets haven’t exactly been keeping games close losing seven of their last eight with six of those by double digits.

Pick: Miami -7

Florida State @ North Carolina
KP: North Carolina -8, O/U 158
Vegas: North Carolina -7, O/U 158

I’ll probably come to regret this come 3:51 PM after both teams have started 0-8 combined from the field, but I think this game can shoot out, plus some. North Carolina won’t go 2-20 from three like they did Wednesday against Duke and Florida State has the horses to run with the Heels.

Pick: Over 158

Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame
KP: Notre Dame +7, O/U 135
Vegas: Notre Dame +4, O/U 133

This will be the second week in a row where I’m picking the under in Virginia’s last opponents next game. But frankly, without Justin Robinson, the Hokies haven’t been great scoring the ball. For Notre Dame, T.J. Gibbs has been fantastic of late and John Mooney is a double-double machine, but both of these teams will struggle to get to 65 making the under a solid play.

Pick: Under 133

Duke @ Syracuse
KP: Syracuse +10, O/U 144
Vegas: Syracuse +5, O/U 143

Obviously, there is a big discrepancy between the KenPom prediction and the line in Vegas. Pomeroy clearly doesn’t account for Zion Williamson already being ruled out of this game. Losing the National Player of the Year is a big blow, especially after he picked apart the Syracuse zone in their first meeting. Regardless, Duke is still loaded. Before he left with an injury, Tre Jones was a one man wrecking crew in the first meeting, and the Blue Devils’ best three point shooter, Cam Reddish, was a late scratch due to illness. Duke is on the road. They lost the first meeting. They’ll be without their best player. But despite all that, they’re going to roll.

Pick: Duke -5

Sunday

Wake Forest @ NC State
KP: NC State -16, O/U 150

During a stretch of games where the teams in the ACC cellar knocked off teams in the upper half the league, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons were able to knock of the Wolfpack. Beyond it being a fluke, I’m not sure how that happened. But, 16 points is a lot in the ACC and NC State hasn’t shown a penchant for blowing teams out.

Pick: Wake Forest +16

Season Total: ATS (28-18-2), O/U (20-15), Total (48-33-2)