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Vegas Odds: Your Gambling Guide for March 2nd

Why is UNC only laying 4.5 points? I want answers.

NCAA Basketball: Virginia at North Carolina Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

We got back to our winning ways last weekend with a nice 5-2 result. Let’s keep the momentum going as we seek out that 7-0 week.

Pittsburgh @ Virginia
KP: Virginia -21, O/U 121
Vegas: Virginia -19, O/U 124

Taking Virginia unders this year has been wrought with stress. The pace is still slow, the defense is still phenomenal, but it’s just that damn Virginia offense. No complaining here though as I love seeing the Hoos put up 80 with relative ease. But the money is still on low scoring affairs anytime the Cavaliers step on the court. Enter Pitt who’s riding an 11 game losing streak. Looking at their game logs they’ve struggled to score against stout defenses that are content playing a slower pace scoring 48, 51, and 56 points against Clemson, Louisville, and Syracuse respectively. I like for Virginia to hold Pitt under 50, so it’s just a matter of whether or not Virginia scores more than 74. I think they come close, but don’t quite get there.

Pick: Under 124

NC State @ Florida State
KP: Florida State -6, O/U 150
Vegas: Florida State -7.5, O/U 153

When you’re a fan of Virginia, you become comfortable betting the under. That’s why I get sick at the thought of taking a game over when the total is in the 150s. But this game sets up perfectly for a track meet. Both teams are deep and both teams are ok with running. But mostly, Florida State is a team that will let NC State do what they want to do. The Seminoles will turn it over a fair amount letting the Wolfpack get theirs in transition. When Florida State has the ball, they can take advantage of NC State’s penchant to commit fouls. The Noles rank 84th in the country in FTA/FGA percentage while NC State ranks 321st at putting teams on the line. Those extra freebies at the line will allow Florida State to pile on the points.

Pick: Over 153

Syracuse @ Wake Forest
KP: Wake Forest +8, O/U 136
Vegas: Wake Forest +8, O/U 137

I’m inclined to take Syracuse with the points here, but I just can’t bring myself to do it. The Orange have actually played better on the road, so eight shouldn’t be a problem. But I like the total here as I don’t think Wake Forest will have any success against the zone, and Syracuse doesn’t really do much on offense outside of jack up a three at the end of the shot clock with no real rhyme or reason as to what they do. So, for that, we’ll take the under.

Pick: Under 137

Miami @ Duke
KP: Duke -21, O/U 151
Vegas: Duke -16, O/U 148

I’m sorry, but I just don’t buy into the Duke is struggling without Zion Williamson narrative. Sure they lost in Blacksburg on Tuesday night, but that’s not a terrible result as Cassell is a tough place to play and the Hokies have been winning that game more often than not. I rode this logic to an easy cover last week when the Blue Devils beat Syracuse by ten on the road. As much as I don’t like Syracuse, they are better than Miami and this one is in Cameron. Duke shows up for this one and hopefully the number keeps falling.

Pick: Duke -16

North Carolina @ Clemson
KP: Clemson +5, O/U 147
Vegas: Clemson -4.5, O/U 147

What am I missing here? Haven’t the Tar Heels won something like a bajallion games in a row over Clemson? Aren’t the Tar Heels playing some of the best basketball in the league save for Virginia at the moment? Why is this game only 4.5 points? Run as fast as you can to bet this. Stop reading and go bet this.

Pick: North Carolina -4.5

Sunday

Notre Dame @ Louisville
KP: Louisville -11, O/U 135

Until they prove me wrong, I’m out on Louisville. Was anyone really worried when they jumped out to that ten point half time lead last week? I wasn’t. As I noted last week, this team overachieved early in the year, and it’s catching up with them. Notre Dame, while not good, has some promise for next year. John Mooney can bang inside and get his double-double while T.J. Gibbs is a solid player. The Irish have been within 11 points of their opponents in ten of their last 13 and that includes road trips to Charlottesville, Chapel Hill, and Tallahassee. They should be able to do the same against the Cardinals.

Pick: Notre Dame +11

Boston College @ Georgia Tech
KP: Georgia Tech -2, O/U 132

Georgia Tech plays solid defense, but the aren't immune to giving up points. I think these two teams leave it all out there as the season comes to an end and this one turns into a bit of a shootout on Sunday night hoops. 67-65 seems a pretty logical final score and it’s a toss up as to who gets to 67, so take the over.

Pick: Over 132

Season Total: ATS (32-19-2), O/U (21-16), Total (53-35-2)