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Heading into last week’s ACC Baseball Tournament, the Virginia Cavaliers were squarely on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and comfortably in, based on my projections. Then the Hoos dropped an extra-inning game to eventual champion North Carolina, and then the wheels fell off in a five-run eighth inning in their 10-3 loss to Miami. If Virginia misses out on the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, you could look at those two games as the final nail in the coffin, but the season was likely undone much earlier when they dug themselves a sizable hole in ACC play.
While Virginia’s resume is still comparable to many of those on the bubble, the fact that they sat watching since Thursday while others earned wins has likely squeezed them to the wrong side. Add to that the bubble itself shrank, with teams like Ohio State in the Big Ten and Cincinnati in the Atlantic Ten winning their conference tournaments, and there just isn’t enough room for everyone. Ultimately, only the top 42 teams in my model made the field which was down from 46 last week. Here is how my final ranking of bubble squads shakes out with Virginia not even making the first four out.
Final Bubble Watch
| STL Rank | Team | Conference | Overall | Conference Rec | RPI | Top 50 W-L | Top 50-100 W-L | Bad Losses | Good Series Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL Rank | Team | Conference | Overall | Conference Rec | RPI | Top 50 W-L | Top 50-100 W-L | Bad Losses | Good Series Wins |
| 1 | FAU | Conference USA | 35-14-1 | 20-8-1 | 37 | 5-8 | 5-5 | 6 | @Southen Miss |
| 2 | Clemson | ACC | 33-23 | 15-15 | 38 | 8-13 | 12-5 | 6 | vs. UNC, vs. Louisville |
| 3 | Florida State | ACC | 35-21 | 17-13 | 50 | 9-11 | 6-7 | 7 | vs. Clemson, @Virginia |
| 4 | BYU | West Coast | 36-15 | 19-8 | 46 | 0-2 | 12-10 | 11 | None |
| 5 | Duke | ACC | 30-24 | 15-15 | 44 | 9-15 | 6-6 | 4 | @Clemson, @Virginia |
| 6 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 36-18 | 20-10 | 52 | 4-4 | 8-5 | 5 | None |
| 7 | UC Irvine | Big West | 34-16 | 15-6 | 54 | 0-5 | 6-4 | 3 | None |
| 8 | Houston | American Athletic | 32-22 | 12-12 | 42 | 8-11 | 10-6 | 3 | @Dallas Baptist, vs. Arizona |
| 9 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 33-21 | 11-13 | 43 | 4-12 | 14-6 | 5 | None |
| 10 | Virginia | ACC | 32-22 | 14-16 | 48 | 9-18 | 5-3 | 8 | vs. Louisville |
Of the teams listed, Duke is the last team in with Texas State and UC Irvine falling just short.
As far as Virginia in concerned, missing the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row is certainly a disappointment. But not all is lost. Based on their play early in the season, and the youth and inexperience across the diamond, coming this close can be seen as something to build on. There are certainly questions to be raised, but I still think Virginia will be back.
It will all be official when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee reveals their field of 64 at 12:00 noon ET Monday. The show can be seen on ESPNU.