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NCAA Baseball Selection Monday Bubble Watch

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They went 0-2 in Durham. Was that enough to get them to the NCAA Regionals?

NCAA Baseball: College World Series-North Carolina vs Oregon State Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into last week’s ACC Baseball Tournament, the Virginia Cavaliers were squarely on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and comfortably in, based on my projections. Then the Hoos dropped an extra-inning game to eventual champion North Carolina, and then the wheels fell off in a five-run eighth inning in their 10-3 loss to Miami. If Virginia misses out on the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, you could look at those two games as the final nail in the coffin, but the season was likely undone much earlier when they dug themselves a sizable hole in ACC play.

While Virginia’s resume is still comparable to many of those on the bubble, the fact that they sat watching since Thursday while others earned wins has likely squeezed them to the wrong side. Add to that the bubble itself shrank, with teams like Ohio State in the Big Ten and Cincinnati in the Atlantic Ten winning their conference tournaments, and there just isn’t enough room for everyone. Ultimately, only the top 42 teams in my model made the field which was down from 46 last week. Here is how my final ranking of bubble squads shakes out with Virginia not even making the first four out.

Final Bubble Watch

STL Rank Team Conference Overall Conference Rec RPI Top 50 W-L Top 50-100 W-L Bad Losses Good Series Wins
STL Rank Team Conference Overall Conference Rec RPI Top 50 W-L Top 50-100 W-L Bad Losses Good Series Wins
1 FAU Conference USA 35-14-1 20-8-1 37 5-8 5-5 6 @Southen Miss
2 Clemson ACC 33-23 15-15 38 8-13 12-5 6 vs. UNC, vs. Louisville
3 Florida State ACC 35-21 17-13 50 9-11 6-7 7 vs. Clemson, @Virginia
4 BYU West Coast 36-15 19-8 46 0-2 12-10 11 None
5 Duke ACC 30-24 15-15 44 9-15 6-6 4 @Clemson, @Virginia
6 Texas State Sun Belt 36-18 20-10 52 4-4 8-5 5 None
7 UC Irvine Big West 34-16 15-6 54 0-5 6-4 3 None
8 Houston American Athletic 32-22 12-12 42 8-11 10-6 3 @Dallas Baptist, vs. Arizona
9 Oklahoma Big 12 33-21 11-13 43 4-12 14-6 5 None
10 Virginia ACC 32-22 14-16 48 9-18 5-3 8 vs. Louisville

Of the teams listed, Duke is the last team in with Texas State and UC Irvine falling just short.

As far as Virginia in concerned, missing the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row is certainly a disappointment. But not all is lost. Based on their play early in the season, and the youth and inexperience across the diamond, coming this close can be seen as something to build on. There are certainly questions to be raised, but I still think Virginia will be back.

It will all be official when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee reveals their field of 64 at 12:00 noon ET Monday. The show can be seen on ESPNU.