Week 1: 5 games under .500
Week 2: 3 games under .500
Week 3: You do the math?
It was a much better week last week although it could have been better had Texas A&M and Richmond didn’t come through with back-door covers. The Richmond/BC game really chaps my craw though. Who kicks a field goal down 35? Enough about last week. 11 games gives us another chance to get back to .500. Can everyone say 10-1?
Third time’s a charm? It shouldn’t take a road win over Wake Forest to make me a believer in a UNC team coming off a win over Miami. But here we are. I’m thinking my assessment of Miami was off. I put a lot into their loss against Florida, suggesting the Gators were a really good team and the poor play was rust. But after last week, I’m not sure that was the case. If the Tar Heels come away with a win on the road against Wake, I’ll be a believer. But I like what Wake has done this year and think they can catch UNC a little high on their horse.
Pick: Wake Forest -3
Last week I liked BC to cover since in the last three years, they score in bunches against bad teams. Last week was no exception and they would have covered if Richmond wasn’t spineless and took a shot at the end zone as opposed to kick a field goal. Kansas is not good coming in off a loss to Coastal Carolina (?). I like BC to roll.
Pick: BC -20.5
Furman Paladins @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech -21; Over/Under 64.5
A 21 point spread with a 64.5 O/U carries an implied total of 43-22. How does Furman score 22? I was disappointed with VaTech last week allowing ODU to keep it fairly close. The Hokies win big, but Furman keeps this one under the total.
Pick: Under 64.5
In the last two years, Pittsburgh has been a pretty good team. Penn State has been a great team. Each year, the Nittany Lions have trucked the Panthers. Pittsburgh got a good win over Ohio a week ago, but they might not be that good. Penn State is still great. At home take the Nittany Lions.
Pick: Penn State -17
I still don’t know what to make of N.C. State. They’ve looked good in games against East Carolina and Western Carolina. But there isn’t much you can glean when facing longitudinal Carolinas. West Virginia on the other hand isn’t very good. They barely squeaked by James Madison and then got run off the field against Missouri. I liked Missouri coming into the year, but 38-7 was too lopsided for my liking. Give me the Wolfpack.
Pick: N.C. State -7
The Citadel Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech -26; Over/Under 57.5
Fade Georgia Tech. So far I’m 1-0 with that strategy, so I’m going to roll with it. The total calls for the Yellow Jackets to win 42-16. I’m not sure Georgia Tech can score 42 and while The Citadel offense has been underwhelming, they should be able to score around 16. Given that, the under looks enticing, but Georgia Tech shouldn’t be laying this many points.
Pick: The Citadel +26
In a rare visit by an ACC team to Conference USA, the Louisville Cardinals travel to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. What has impressed me about Louisville is their ability to compete. Teams that compete, even when they’re bad, cover. Western Kentucky comes in 1-1 with a loss to Tulane and close win over Florida International, who isn’t very good. I like Louisville to take care of business in the easy part of their schedule and go into Bowling Green and get the W.
Pick: Louisville -10.5
Bethune Cookman Wildcats @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
Miami -40; Over/Under 54
As I mentioned in my write-up for the UNC game, Miami is a team I am really wrong on so far this season. They’ve been sloppy and allowed UNC to jump out to too big a lead early suggesting they’re not mentally prepared coming into games. Bethune-Cookman hasn’t been terrible in games against FBS competition over the last two years, so a 40 point spread is just too many points for the Hurricanes.
Pick: Bethune Cookman +40
Hey, what do you know, another ACC team visiting a Conference USA squad. Maybe it’s not so rare. But what to do with Duke? They get blown out against Bama and then blow out NC A&T. Both were expected results, which is to say, I have no idea if they’re good or not. Middle Tennessee is a perennial bowl team, though they don’t generally fair very well against power conference competition. I don’t love the 6.5, but I think both teams can score. Therefore, root for points and take the over
Pick: Over 50.5
I’ve had a lot of bad picks this season, but none as bad as taking Syracuse on the Money Line a week ago. Yeah, how’d that work out? Syracuse isn’t very good. In week 1, I thought their defense was stout against Liberty. It’s more likely the Flames are just bad. Tommy DeVito is not Eric Dungey. Eric Dungey was a guy who could will his way to wins (and covers). Tommy DeVito is not. Clemson won’t overlook the Orange after losing in this spot two years ago and surviving a scare last season. The Tigers win this one big.
Pick: Clemson -28
Can I throw up now? I don’t think it’s an exaggeration, but this is the biggest non-VaTech game in Charlottesville in the last decade. While Florida State may not be the Florida State of old, it’s still Florida State and it’s a game Virginia needs to win if they’re to continue the ascension. In my win totals O/U column, I picked the ‘Noles to win, but that’s also when I thought they were a cinch to win over 7.5 games. I don’t think that’s the case now. Their defense is just so bad. I like the Hoos to win, but something really worries me about this game. And because of that weird feeling, 7.5 points is just too many.
But good news Hoos. If you’ve been paying attention, I’m terrible at this.
Pick: Florida State +7.5