ACC Basketball Betting Preview: January 11th

This college basketball season has been a crazy one so far, although you might just now be realizing it now that we are focusing all our attention on college basketball. With no really great teams, it’s providing an exciting backdrop each and every night. That makes ‘capping all the harder. We’re gonna do our best though on this seven game slate of goodness.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: Virginia Tech -1, O/U 143
Vegas: Virginia Tech -2, O/U 143.5

One of the sneakiest stats I love to use when betting the Wolfpack is their pace on defense. Their swarming defense is predicated on creating turnovers early in the shot clock, thus creating quick possessions going the other way. However, If they don’t get the turnover, they’re content to make a team work for offense. Enter Virginia Tech who doesn’t turn the ball over that much and is content to milk clock on both ends of the floor. All that adds up to a game that doesn’t quite get above 140.

Pick: Under 143.5

Louisville Cardinals @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame +4, O/U 132
Vegas: Notre Dame +3.5, O/U 136

Listening to the college basketball media talk about Louisville and you’d think they’re in a Virginia/North Carolina-like swoon over the last two weeks or so. However, losses to Texas Tech, Kentucky, and Florida State are nothing to sneeze at. I liked Notre Dame a lot coming into the year, but so far they just haven’t shown me a lot in losses to Boston College and North Carolina in particular. Louisville will remind us again why they were considered one of the best teams in the country, much less the ACC.

Pick: Louisville -3.5

Syracuse Orange @ Virginia Cavaliers
KP: Virginia -7, O/U 113
Vegas: Virginia -7.5, O/U 115

62-54. 62-54. That’t the implied total for this one. Does either team get to 54? After holding the Orange to 34 (and only scoring 48 themselves) in the opener, Virginia gets Syracuse at home. Nothing I’ve seen out of these two teams makes me think this game will be any different than the first meeting. Even with good offensive personnel, Syracuse teams haven’t been able to crack the pack-line and unless the Hoos all of a sudden figure out how to hit three-pointers, it’s going to be a long day against the 2-3 Zone. Now watch both explode for 70 apiece.

Pick: Under 115

Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -6, O/U 134
Vegas: North Carolina -4.5, O/U 135

0-59. 0-59. That’s Clemson’s record in Chapel Hill. This has to be the year, right? Nope. While North Carolina is bad, Clemson is really bad. Despite a win over NC State on Saturday and the Tar Heels posting back-to-back homes losses to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, I think North Carolina figures something out. The Tigers won’t have an answer for Armando Bacot and the Heels will extend their streak.

Pick: North Carolina -4.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Boston College Eagles
KP: Boston College +1, O/U 131
Vegas: Boston College +2.5, O/U 131.5

I’m surprised the books favor Georgia Tech as much as they do. Given the Eagles win over Virginia on Tuesday, you’d figure they’d be getting a little more steam. Regardless, Georgia Tech is a much better team even if Boston College has Nik Popovic and Derryck Thornton, so if those guys are out, you’re getting even more value.

Pick: Georgia Tech -2.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -20; O/U 146
Vegas: Duke -18, O/U 146

Don’t let the nine-point win over Georgia Tech fool you, the Yellow Jackets are good, and by extension, so are the Blue Devils. Since conference play began in earnest, the Blue Devils have been trucking teams. 14 point win at Virginia Tech, 39 point pasting of Boston College, 33 point win at Miami. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has come up with some decent wins, but haven’t been competitive with the likes of Florida State and NC State, much less Duke. The Blue Devils are hitting their stride and roll.

Pick: Duke -18

Sunday

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
KP: Miami -1; O/U 139

This is the exact kind of matchup that epitomizes #ACC this season. Both squads got rolled by Louisville and both have come up with a win or two that make your eyes raise just a little. However Pitt has done it on a little more of a consistent basis. While North Carolina isn’t good, Pitt will gain some confidence by going on the road to beat the Tar Heels. Miami won’t provide as much of a fight, even at home.

Pick: Pittsburgh +1

Season Total: ATS (11-9), O/U (2-5), Total (13-14)