Sitting at 13-6 overall and 5-4 in the ACC, the Virginia Cavaliers’ NCAA Tournament hopes appear to be hanging on by a thread.
Most prognosticators have the Hoos on the outside looking thanks in large part to losses to Boston College and South Carolina, coupled with UVa’s inability to win tight games that could bolster their resume.
As it stands, UVa is currently No. 53 in KenPom, No. 55 according to Torvik, and No. 59 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings.
Instituted last year, the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses a NET Report for every team to sort each team’s resume into four quads. Each game a team plays, based on the location of the game and the NET ranking of the opponent, falls into a quad.
Here’s how UVa’s NET Report looks after their road win over Wake Forest:
Luckily UVa has not truly stumbled with any Quad IV losses, but the two Quad III losses are not great for the resume. There is a chance South Carolina improves as the season progresses and they move into Quad II.
The other good news for UVa is that they play in the ACC. Outside of the remaining game against Boston College, all the other games that are still on UVa’s schedule will be Quad I or II games (Clemson is currently a Quad III game but is only two spots from Quad II).
The path to an NCAA Tournament berth isn’t clear given the somewhat subjective nature the selection committee takes when it reaches the bottom of the at-large bids, but for UVa to improve their resume does appear to be clear.
It’s not groundbreaking, but win the games that are in front of them. They can likely lose a few more given the back half of their schedule will feature two games against Louisville, a game against Duke and FSU, and a road game remaining against Virginia Tech. The losses will likely have to come in that group while the Hoos don’t have the goodwill to drop games to the likes of Clemson, UNC, and (god forbid again) BC.