ACC Basketball Betting Preview: Feb 15

Well that was a disaster. Hoping to charge into the last month of the season, I had my worst week of the year. Pick the under, game goes over. Pick the over, game goes under. Oh well, on to the next one.

Syracuse Orange @ Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State -9, O/U 145
Vegas: Florida State -9.5, O/U 146.5

It still pains me to see Syracuse as one of the top teams in the ACC. I use the term “top” rather loosely since, after Duke, Louisville, and Florida State, the conference isn’t all that good. But there is a definite difference between Syracuse and the likes of Boston College and Wake Forest. Syracuse can hang with anybody and they won’t back down against Florida State on the road. In the end, 9.5 is just too many points to be laying in an ACC game between first and second tier teams.

Pick: Syracuse +9.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
KP: Miami -2, O/U 152
Vegas: Miami -3.5, O/U 149.5

In their seven ACC home games, the Hurricanes have gone 3-4. Each of those three wins have come by at least eight points and were against teams ranked at best 96th according to KenPom. The four losses have all come against top-half ACC teams. Wake Forest is not a top-half ACC team.

Pick: Miami -3.5

Louisville Cardinals @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson +5, O/U 129
Vegas: Clemson +5, O/U 131

With the benefit of hindsight, I think we should have all seen Louisville’s Wednesday night debacle against Georgia Tech coming. Road game coming off a physical game against a team you haven’t beaten in several years. Spot on let down spot. Louisville won’t let that happen two games in a row. Expect the Cardinals to roll.

Pick: Louisville -5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -14, O/U 150
Vegas: Duke -12.5, O/U 151

You have to go back to the first week of December to find a game the Fighting Irish lost by more than five points. In years past, I’ve felt teams coming off games against Virginia find it a little easier to score in their next outing. For that reason, I usually like overs. However, 151 is a huge number. I think Notre Dame scores points, and while that might not allow the game to go over, I think it keeps them from getting decimated in Cameron.

Pick: Notre Dame +12.5

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: Virginia Tech -4, O/U 126
Vegas: Virginia Tech -3.5, O/U 128

Pittsburgh is a team that has baffled me all season. I just can’t figure them out. In fact, when betting the Panthers against the spread as an underdog this year, I’m 0-4. While that’s a pretty small sample size it does suggest that I give them a bit more credit than they may deserve. Virginia Tech comes into this one not having played during the week while Pitt is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Clemson. The Hokies will be rested and while the Boston College losses look bad, they’ve actually played pretty well at home on the year.

Pick: VaTech -3.5

Virginia Cavaliers @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -1, O/U 113
Vegas: North Carolina -2, O/U 116

Virginia/North Carolina games follow a pretty simple formula in my eyes. North Carolina wants to run. Virginia doesn’t want to let you run. The pack line more often than not wins. I love Roy Williams, but he seems to do the same thing over and over in this game, and it doesn’t work. The Tar Heels will try to run. The Hoos won’t let them. I don’t know the eventual outcome, but it won’t be high scoring.

Pick: Under 116

Season Total: ATS (17-21-19), O/U (5-11), Total (22-32-1)