ACC Betting Preview: February 22nd

You know it’s a bad year when a .500 week is a breath of fresh air. Just couple more weeks to get back in the black. Here’s hoping that, like the Hoos, I can do my best stuff when it counts the most.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Pittsburgh Panthers
KP: Pittsburgh -1, O/U 109
Vegas: Pittsburgh +3, O/U 109.5

This game might be played at a glacial pace with both teams in the bottom 330 in tempo. But like the planet, Virginia has been heating up (I’ll see myself out). Tomas Woldetensae has been out of his mind from three, and if that continues at least to the slightest degree, Virginia should be able to score some points. The only way it doesn’t go over is if the Hoos suffocate the Panthers while only scoring around 60. If that’s that case, I’ll take it, but like every UVA game this season, we’ll likely be sweating the last three minutes with heart meds at the ready.

Pick: Over 109.5

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville -13, O/U 143
Vegas: Louisville -9, O/U 145

Did Louisville right the ship with its 24 point win over Syracuse earlier this week? I don’t know? Is North Carolina really on a six-game losing streak? Yes, that is true and it’s true even with Cole Anthony in the lineup. Still though, with him back, there’s the perception that they’ve been better, but the wins just haven’t come. That being said, if you remove the strange result against Wake Forest, they’ve lost the remaining five game by an average of 2.4 points. So maybe they are “better.”

Pick: North Carolina +9

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Syracuse Orange
KP: Syracuse -4, O/U 142
Vegas: Syracuse -5.5, O/U 142.5

This pick might be quintessential to why I’m ten games under .500 on the season. I’m convinced that Georgia Tech is gonna muck up the game while at the same time I don’t think Syracuse is very good on the offensive end. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 110th in tempo and the Orange are 29th in offensive efficiency. So, what do I know? However, the Jackets do play stellar defense, but are 319th in three-point shooting. That’s not a good recipe going against the Orange and their 2-3 zone.

Pick: Under 142.5

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
KP: NC State +1, O/U 145
Vegas: NC State +1.5, O/U 146

NC State improved its NCAA Tournament chances with an upset win over Duke on Wednesday and now host Florida State with a chance to notch another quality win that would sure put them on the right side of the bubble with two weeks left to play. Florida State meanwhile has still only lost twice since the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and they haven’t been tested much in the process. Either I’m missing something or the Wolfpack seem a little juiced since their win.

Pick: Florida State -1.5

Clemson Tigers @ Boston College Eagles
KP: Boston College +3, O/U 127
Vegas: Boston College +4, O/U 128

Don’t look now, but Boston College is 4-4 in their last eight games. With three of those four losses coming to Louisville, Duke, and Virginia they aren’t playing to the level the metrics might suggest. Clemson has been riding high as of late, but this is still the ACC and with the bottom-half teams, anyone can hang with anybody on any day.

Pick: Boston College +4

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -16, O/U 140
Vegas: Duke -16.5, O/U 143

This game will all come down to Virginia Tech’s ability to shoot threes. If the Hokies make em, they keep it close and the game goes over. If they miss em, Duke rolls and the game could go under. I like the former as Duke has built up with wins on the backs of teams shooting only 27% of their field goal attempts from three while Virginia Tech takes almost 47% of their shots from long range. Landers Nolley only went for seven points in the first contest and that game ended with a total of 140. He should have a bit of a better game and the Hokies can get to 64.

Pick: Over 143

Miami-Florida Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame -6, O/U 150

Their win over Virginia Tech on Wednesday notwithstanding, Miami has been fairly formulaic this season. If the Canes are at home, playing a bottom half ACC team, take the Canes. If not, take the other team. Notre Dame meanwhile is 6-4 in their last ten with the losses coming to Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia, and Duke. At home against Miami, they should be able to cover the six.

Pick: Notre Dame -6

Season Total: ATS (20-23-1), O/U (5-12), Total (25-35-1)