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ACC Basketball Betting Preview: 8 February

After a week off, we’re back and it’s Rivalry Week

NCAA Basketball: Louisville at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

With the Bye week upon us, I knew I had to do things differently to shake it up a little. So like Braxton Key chucking up three pointers with his girlfriend there to rebound, I too enlisted the help of my wife and fired off as many bets as I could with her there to rebound each of my misses. With each shot I got better from the encouragement she gave me to keep going, despite what it meant for our kids’ college funds. Fortunately, I exaggerate. Given my track record this season, I wouldn’t have made it past the first night. Two weeks ago was “better,” but I’ve still got a long way to go to get back on the right side of even. It starts this week.

Miami-Florida Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State -14, O/U 146
Vegas: Florida State -13.5, O/U 144

Florida State is easily entrenched in the top three of the ACC. Miami, is in the bottom three. But, Florida State is just not one of those teams that blows teams out. And especially the Hurricanes. Earlier in the year, the Seminoles needed to mount a big second half comeback just to tie the game before winning in overtime. They shouldn’t have trouble winning the game, but covering 14 is a tall ask.

Pick: Miami +13.5

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: Virginia Tech -9, O/U 129
Vegas: Virginia Tech -7, O/U 131.5

After upsetting Michigan State in Maui and early ACC wins over Syracuse, NC State, and North Carolina, it looked like VaTech under new head coach Mike Young might be a surprise of the ACC. But four straight losses have the Hokies going to wrong direction in the ACC. Now they host Boston College, the team that started that four game losing streak. The Eagles come in as a team I’m terrible at trying to figure out. What I do know is they’re not very good on the offensive end. However that hasn’t necessarily translated to low scoring games. It will Saturday as Virginia Tech will keep the pace slow and make Boston College be efficient to score, something I don’t think they can do.

Pick: Under 131.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Pittsburgh Panthers
KP: Pittsburgh -3, O/U 127
Vegas: Pittsburgh +2.5, O/U 131

It seems like Vegas, in the face of two pretty equal teams has gone the way of a default three points to the home team. Ultimately, this just comes down to which team I think is better and that’s the Jackets. Even though they’re on the road, I think they keep it close, if not come away with the outright win.

Pick: Georgia Tech +2.5

Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville -10, O/U 108
Vegas: Louisville -7, O/U 114

For the first time since their unbelievable Elite Eight win over Purdue, the Hoos return to the Yum! Center, a building they’ve had much success in beyond just the NCAA Tournament. Virginia hasn’t lost to the Cardinals in Louisville since 2015. While I don’t expect that winning streak to go to five, I do think the Hoos can acquit themselves favorably. Ultimately it will come down their ability to contain Louisville on defense. If Virginia’s defense is solid, they can stay close and work the ball inside. However if Louisville starts to pull away, the Cardinals pack line will force the Hoos into taking more threes than Virginia would like which is not a recipe for success. Either way, I don’t expect a lot of scoring.

Pick: Under 114

Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina +12, O/U 148
Vegas: North Carolina +8, O/U 150

Pick: Under 150

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Syracuse Orange
KP: Syracuse -7, O/U 151
Vegas: Syracuse -9, O/U 148

Perhaps it’s been years of watching Virginia basketball. Maybe there’s an edge to be had. Or could it be that I’m just a masocist? Regardless of the reason, I have no issue betting an under in a game. There are few totals that scare me. But after betting three unders up to this point, let’s have some fun. Let’s see some points. The 17th rated offense against the 147th rated defense. In the dome. Yup, sign me up.

Pick: Over 148

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson -1, O/U 135

In games against the top half of the ACC, the Fighting Irish are 1-4. In games against the bottom half, they’re 4-2. Clemson is in the bottom half. Coming into the year, I liked the Irish to be a top level ACC team and dare I say they might be starting to play like it. Since the calendar turned, they’re 5-4 though their four losses have come by an average of under 3 points and came against the likes of Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, and NC State. They’re on a three game winning streak against against teams that profile much like the Tigers.

Pick: Notre Dame +1

Season Total: ATS (16-19), O/U (5-8), Total (21-27)