It’s the final weekend of the regular season and if I’ve learned anything from this season’s picks is I don’t know anything and this year has been harder to handicap than any year I can remember. Here’s to creeping back to .500
Louisville Cardinals @ Virginia Cavaliers
KP: Virginia +1, O/U 111
Vegas: Virginia -1.5, O/U 115
Don’t be fooled by the 153 points these two teams put up when they faced each other in Louisville. Virginia easily played their best offensive game of the season and Louisville played the best game against Virginia’s defense all season. Tomas Woldetensae went ballistic from three making seven of ten attempts. Not to be outdone, Louisville’s Jordan Nwora went for 22 including four of eight from three. Both have cooled off in recent games and I would expect to see more of a grind em out style game from two teams running the pack-line.
Pick: Under 115
Syracuse Orange @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes
KP: Miami +1, O/U 151
Vegas: Miami +1.5, O/U 147
Remember the flow chart? Is Miami at home? Yes. Is Miami playing a bottom-half ACC team? Ye...errrr...maybe? Given that four games in the loss column separates fourth from fifth in the league, and the same four games separates fifth from thirteenth, any team not in the top four is officially bottom-half. Take the ‘Canes
Pick: Miami +1.5
Boston College Eagles @ Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State -18, O/U 140
Vegas: Florida State -16.5, O/U 142
If there is one pick you where you bet the opposite sight unseen, no analysis, it’s this one. I’m terrible at picking the Eagles this year, so just go the other way. At first glance the number looks huge, but we do get some value against the KenPom prediction. The Seminoles have shown they can blow teams out at home and given they want to wrap up the ACC Regular Season crown, I’d expect them to be laser-focused throughout and win going away.
Pick: Florida State -16.5
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -15, O/U 151
Vegas: Duke -10.5, O/U 154.5
I’m going to try not to overthink this one. The KenPom prediction seems high (and doesn’t take into account how good UNC CAN play), so there is value on the Tar Heel’s to cover. But this is all about the total. 154.5 is a huge number and one I usually stay away from. Add to that 90% of bets are on the over and it’s normally a tailor-made under for me. But I’m going with the public here. I don’t care who’s playing, these games just get out of hand. It’ll be up and down with little to no defense to be found. In the first matchup, through 30 minutes, they were on pace to go over this number even with Duke not playing very well. They’ll play better from the tip and this one should go over.
Pick: Over 154.5
Season Total: ATS (25-28-1), O/U (8-13), Total (33-41-1)