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College Football Vegas Odds: ACC Win Totals

Predicting the Over/Under wins for every ACC team this fall

NCAA Football: ACC Championship-Virginia vs Clemson Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Come hell or high water or global pandemic the ACC football season is here. It took a while and some scheduling creativity, but for this Saturday at least we’ll have ACC football. So ahead of the season, let’s take a look at each ACC team’s Vegas win total. Given the unpredictable nature of this season, few books have released future lines for win totals, but that doesn’t stop us, as I present to you your guide to ACC win totals to fade.

Virginia Cavaliers
6 Wins

A lot of folks are sleeping on the Cavaliers this season and rightfully so as our Hoos have to replace Bryce Perkins under center who willed his way to at least 1.5 Virginia wins a year ago. Enter Brennan Armstrong, who I think is more than capable of steering the squad to a successful season, but the strength of this team will be on defense. The D is good enough to keep Virginia in every game save for against Clemson. The schedule looks daunting having to travel to VaTech, Clemson, Miami, and Florida State, but as you’ll see further down, I’m down on the two Sunshine State teams and playing the Hokies right out of the gate is advantage Hoos. I think the Hoos lose two of the first five, then two of the final six for a seven-win season.

Pick: Over

Boston College Eagles
3.5 Wins

In an ongoing theme throughout this article, I’m putting a lot of stock into teams’ ability to deal with the adversity surrounding COVID-19. You wanna know a major hindrance to being able to be prepared this season? Yeah, a new coach. Jeff Hafley arrives in Chestnut Hill and brings with him a pass-first offensive coordinator. That’s not a good mix for a team personnel predicated on running the ball. I don’t expect the Eagles to bounce back...not this season at least.

Pick: Under

Clemson Tigers
10.5 Wins

It’s Clemson’s world and we’re just living in it. There are some studs to replace on defense, but the offense shouldn’t skip a beat with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. The only landmine on the schedule is at Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish aren’t in the Tigers’ class.

Pick: Over

Duke Blue Devils
4.5 Wins

2020 Duke won’t look like Dukes of the past. Instead of being led by a prolific passing game, the Blue Devils will have to rely heavily on their defense. Duke will get after the passer, led by ends Chris Rumph II and Victor Dimukeje but there are questions at the back end of the D. The schedule isn’t terrible, with Clemson, Miami, and Louisville noticeably absent. I see their game with NC State as being pivotal for both teams. I have the Wolfpack at home in that one, so Duke comes in one win short of this total.

Pick: Under

Florida State Seminoles
7 Wins

Remember that theme about dealing with adversity? Well, Florida State is also breaking in a new coach as Mike Norvell takes over for Willie Taggert and the Seminoles’ track record dealing with COVID-19 has been less than stellar up to this point. The defense will be really good, while the offense can’t be much worse. However, for me this season is less about talent and how teams can play given “these uncertain times.” Most notably though, the Seminoles face Clemson, Notre Dame, UNC, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia. There are at least four losses in that bunch.

Pick: Under

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
3 Wins

Georgia Tech experienced significant growing pains last season transitioning from the Triple Option. A lack of non-conference opponents will hurt that continued transition this year. The Yellow Jackets will undoubtedly be better, but three wins will be really hard to come by.

Pick: Under

Louisville Cardinals
7 Wins

I was really impressed with what I saw from Louisville last year and I expect them to take another step forward this season. It was clear that the talent was there under Bobby Petrino, he had just completely lost the locker room. Well, Scott Satterfield has the respect of his team and that will pay dividends this season. Micale Cunningham was solid last year, but he has weapons galore and just needs to steer the ship. The Cardinals dodge Clemson and UNC, so seven to eight wins is certainly within their grasp.

Pick: Over

Miami-Florida Hurricanes
7 Wins

Last year I made the fatal flaw believing that Miami’s talent was enough to carry it to victories. Boy was I wrong. There were three certainties in life last year: death, taxes, and me being incredibly wrong about the Miami Hurricanes. Perhaps, I’m going to over correct, but nothing about what they have coming back makes me think this year will be any different. Add to that star Defensive Lineman Gregory Rousseau opting out to focus on the NFL Draft and I’ll be off Miami this year.

Pick: Under

North Carolina Tar Heels
7.5 Wins

Another pick I got completely wrong last season was thinking that Mack Brown wouldn’t be able to step in and coach in today’s game. On top of that I thought freshman quarterback Sam Howell would struggle. Howell was really good, and UNC was one of the biggest surprises of the season. I like for Howell to be more consistent which will help the Heels close out some of those close game they lost last year. The 7.5 total is about spot on, but I’ll lean over and look for UNC to potentially face Clemson in Charlotte if they can spring an upset of Notre Dame.

Pick: Over

N.C. State Wolfpack
4.5 Wins

I think it’s about time to admit that Dave Dorean just isn’t it. The Wolfpack head coach heads into this season squarely on the bubble, and that cloud over this program will make things that much more difficult. COVID-19 has also reared its ugly head, forcing the school to pause all athletic activities and postponing the team’s opener with VaTech to September 26th. NC State has remained steadfast in their commitment to quarterback Devin Leary who was just OK last year. They’ll need him to vastly improve if they’re going to sniff this number.

Pick: Under

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8 Wins

Notre Dame finally joined a conference and believe it or not, their schedule isn’t all that difficult. So much for the argument that the independent schedule allowed the Irish to game the system and load up on cupcakes. Eight wins seems a little low to me. They CAN beat Clemson, though I doubt they will. Then it’s really only games against Louisville, Pitt, and UNC that they could lose. They are a clear number two to the Tigers and I’ll be really surprised if they don’t get a rematch in the ACC Championship game.

Pick: Over

Pittsburgh Panthers
5 Wins

The Panthers come into the year a trendy pick to surprise in the ACC. Pat Narduzzi always brings a strong defense and this year will be no different. The defensive line will be incredible even with Jaylen Twyman opting out of the season. The biggest question will be whether or not Kenny Pickett can improve their pedestrian offense. If he can, the Panthers could cruise past this total, but given what we’ve seen over his career (which feels like it’s been forever) it’s still a big question mark. The Panthers get to play all four of the teams that I have with the lowest predicted win totals in the ACC and with a non-conference game against Austin Peay, the Panthers should be able to get to five wins on those games alone even though I don’t anticipate them being in the top echelon of the league.

Pick: Over

Syracuse Orange
3.5 Wins

Speaking of quarterbacks who have been in the league forever. Even though he is just a junior, Tommy DeVito has to be running out of eligibility, right? He has the potential to be explosive, but who’s he going to throw to? Trishton Jackson is gone to the NFL as well three of their other top four receivers. In total, they’re losing 70% of their WR receptions. The biggest question though is on defense. What was supposed to be a strength last year wasn’t. And they didn’t get better losing Kendall Coleman, Alton Robinson, and Lakeim Williams. That won’t add up to a very good year.

Pick: Under

Virginia Tech Hokies
7.5 Wins

As much as I don’t want this to be the case, I think the Hokies are going to be pretty good this season. Add to that their schedule is one of the easiest in the league (especially if you’re not bullish on UNC and Louisville). I’ve been on the record saying, I think it’s a benefit for Virginia to play this team early as they’ll likely stumble out of the gate, but get things right as the season progresses. Even if the Hokies split against UVA and UNC, I still have them at 8 wins.

Pick: Over

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
4.5 Wins

This team looked a lot different before star WR Sage Surratt opted to sit out the season. Replacing quarterback Jamie Newman was going to be hard enough for this prolific offense. Unfortunately for the Deacs, I don’t think they’ll be able to outscore teams in shootouts like they did a year ago and their defense will keep them below this win total. Plus looking at the schedule, a 2-4 start isn’t out of the question as they face Clemson, Notre Dame, VaTech, and Virginia in first six games. And it doesn’t end well either with three of the last four against UNC, Miami, and Louisville.

Pick: Under