In a way I’m like the Hoos, found my footing after an early season trouncing, but facing a big test this weekend. There are plenty of games between teams at the “top” of the ACC co-mingled with games between teams at the bottom. It means a lot of tight spreads and tough decisions to make. We’re finally in the black, so let’s try to stay there.
Just like that North Carolina is on a three game winning steak winning games against Notre Dame, Miami, and Syracuse. The win over the Orange looks ok, but I’m still not convinced. Florida State may have turned a corner in their 105-73 win against NC State, but it ultimately comes down to not trusting the Heels.
Pick: Florida State -4.5
It’s been ten days since we last saw the Panthers and that came in a matchup against these same Syracuse Orange. Pitt got the better of Syracuse in that one 63-60 yet we have Syracuse as a 4.5 point favorite in Pittsburgh. Syracuse has had no problem playing up tempo and scoring while Pittsburgh has made their way on the defensive end. If Pitt can slow down the Syracuse attack, I think this one can be low scoring like the first matchup. It may be a sucker bet, but I think it goes under again.
Pick: Under 141.5
Boston College Eagles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame -3, O/U 153
Vegas: Notre Dame -5, O/U 148.5
Is it just me or is Notre Dame that team that we want to be good that isn’t? They got a lot of steam from their win over Kentucky at the start of the season, but have only been competitive once in ACC play (against UNC who I’ve not been to shy to say I’m not high on this season). Rich Kelly has been a revelation for the Eagles playing 32 and 38 minutes in their last two games after not having played more than 26 minutes in any other game this year. His 7-12 shooting from three paced the Eagles to a 84-62 win over scrappy Miami. I think, even without Wynston Tabbs, Boston College may actually be the better team.
Pick: Boston College +5
A week after the books gave us a gift with a UVA game total in the 130’s we’re back in familiar 110’s territory. And for good reason given Clemson comes in with the number one rated defense on KenPom and Virginia (no stranger to good defense) checks in at 13. Both teams play slow on both ends of the floor. Clemson looks the part so far this season, but I like the matchup for Virginia. As a team, the Tigers only shoot 34% from three and their best three-point shooter is Nick Honor, a 5’10 guard who Kikei Clarke should be able to match up with. Aamir Simms is fantastic and can give the Hoos problems down low, but I don't see Clemson to be able to exploit weaknesses in the pack like defense.
Pick: Virginia -2
If it weren’t for the nationally televised beat-down the Cardinals received at the hands of Wisconsin early in the season, Louisville might find themselves the talk of the ACC. Miami is perhaps the hardest team to peg in the ACC. They beat NC State and lost by a combined five points to VahTech, Clemson, and UNC. While being competitive against good teams, they’ve also lost to Florida Gulf Coast, Pittsburgh by 15, and BC by 22. So, if you’re keeping score at home, they play bad against bad teams and good against good teams. Louisville is a good team. Therefore, take the Canes right? Nah. I think Louisville is ready to proved they’re at the top of the ACC and they take care of business.
Pick: Louisville -3.5
Season Total: ATS (8-7-0), O/U (3-3-1), Total (11-10-1)