ACC Basketball Betting Preview: Happy New Year?

Well so much for all the bad news of 2020 being behind us. Another positive COVID-19 test within the Virginia program has set the team back again, postponing Saturday’s matchup against Virginia Tech. Add to that the Duke/Florida State game has also been postponed due to COVID within the Florida State program (after it was also announced Coach Mike Krzyzewski would miss the game due to an exposure). The slate loses a little of its luster without the Hoos, Hokies, Devils, and Noles going at it, but we’re still left with three solid games Saturday and a fourth on Sunday.

Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles
KP: Boston College +6, O/U 140
Vegas: Boston College +5.5, O/U 140

There are few things in life that are as affected by recency bias as are betting lines, and this is a perfect example. Louisville is coming off a close win over a bad team while Boston College is coming off a close loss to a potentially good team. Those combined likely swing this line a point away from Louisville and a point towards Boston College. Louisville is clearly the better team in this one and I think we see a performance more reminiscent of the ten-point win at Pittsburgh as opposed to the tight three-point win over their rival Kentucky

Pick: Louisville -5.5

Clemson Tigers @ Miami Hurricanes
KP: Miami +4, O/U 132
Vegas: Miami +4.5, O/U 131

All signs point to this tilt being a low scoring affair. Two defensive-oriented teams, one of which playing a very slow pace. But weird things happen when these two teams get together. I think Miami gets the Tigers to play up to their pace and there are some easy points Clemson can create off turnovers.

Pick: Over 131

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -10, O/U 148
Vegas: North Carolina -10.5, O/U 146.5

I wasn’t as adamant as I was last year, but I’m still not sure North Carolina is very good. Recent results in losses to NC State and Georgia Tech might also confirm that. Notre Dame might not be very good either, but I think they can run with the Heels. The Irish are good enough from three so they can make up a deficit late to keep it close. Furthermore, I don’t think UNC has enough of an advantage on the offensive boards to run away with this game.

Pick: Notre Dame +10.5

Sunday

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
KP: Georgia Tech -6, O/U 140

Wake Forest is back after having to suspend team operations due to COVID and in for a rude awakening playing a Georgia Tech that is actually pretty good. We don’t know much about the Deacs having only played teams in the 300s of KenPom and Division II Catawba. Wake Forest wasn’t projected to be very good this season, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe that won’t be the case. Georgia Tech should have no problem scoring and I think they roll to pick up their second ACC win of the year.

Pick: Georgia Tech -6

Season Total: ATS (4-6-0), O/U (1-2-0), Total (5-8-0)