Let’s keep it going following up a 3-0-1 week. Not only do we get the betting action of an ACC slate, but the Hoos have decided to join us. And spoiler alert, I go back to an old friend.
Before I took a close look at this game, I had it in my mind that maybe we were a little too early to write off Duke. Maybe the fact that they lost to two good Big Ten teams wasn’t a signal that they still weren’t at the top of the ACC. Then I realized their two ACC wins were against Boston College and Notre Dame. So let’s pump the breaks on whether or not Duke may actually be good. Given that, there is no reason for them to be a 13 point favorite until I see something more. Wake Forest came out of the gates firing from three against Virginia (because of course they did) and I think they can make enough shots to keep this game close.
Pick: Wake Forest +13.5
Miami has been quite the surprise this season. Despite not getting the job done closing out either Clemson or North Carolina in close games, they have hung tight with both, having chances to win the games. NC State is doing everything they can to prove they belong at the top of a wide-open ACC. The Wolfpack are the better team, but this game could be wonky. I like the over here as both play with fast tempos, with Miami allowing quick possessions on the defensive end. Furthermore, NC State thrives when causing steals and the Hurricanes rank 292nd in allowing steals on offense. That should lead to some easy buckets by the Pack and force the Canes to play catchup.
Pick: Over 142.5
And...we have the books right where we want them. After a couple “high scoring” affairs, Vegas is giving us an total over 130. Against a Boston College team on the road, expect the Hoos to ratchet up the defense but not be able to run away with it on the offensive end. Our brand is back. Bet the under.
Pick: Under 131.5
Georgetown is not good. It’s actually incredible how bad they’ve been. They lost to Navy for crying out loud. But this is Syracuse who I’ve been screaming from the roof tops for years now that they’re not the proud program they once were. Maybe they just need a visit from their old Big East rival to give us a reminder. Looking at their profiles, this has all the makings of a Syracuse blowout and perhaps they do, but I’m looking again at the total. Against the 2-3 zone, how does Georgetown score 67? This game starts out sloppy and slow, and while the Orange may win by 20, they won’t score 85 in doing so.
Pick: Under 146.5
Say what you want about the Fighting Irish as they’ve been one of the worst teams in the ACC, but they do keep games close. VaTech is good and may be one of the best teams in the ACC, but having them cover eight is asking too much. I doubt Notre Dame wins, but they can keep it within single digits. Each of their ACC wins came in close contests and I think that happens again.
Pick: Notre Dame +8
Season Total: ATS (7-6-0), O/U (1-2-1), Total (8-8-1)