ACC Betting Preview: Week 12

After falling several games under .500, we’re back in the black having won 12 of the last 13 bets. Let see if the heater continues and DraftKings Sportsbook gets nervous when I come to the window (app). Spoiler, they won’t.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons@ Clemson Tigers
Clemson -3.5; Over/Under 57

This game has been giving me fits all week. No, I don’t believe Clemson’s offense is all of a sudden back, but their defense is still the best unit Wake will face all year. I have a hard time laying points with Clemson as I can’t trust them to outscore the Deacons if it comes to it. So, taking the points with Wake Forest presents the most outs. If the game is low scoring, it favors the underdog and if the game is high scoring is favors the better offense. In both cases, that’s Wake Forest. Clemson may win, but it won’t be by much.

Pick: Wake Forest +3.5

Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles
Boston College -1.5; Over/Under 55.5

Florida State has been playing much better with Jordan Travis under center and should be able to run the ball against a porous BC defense. But this game is all about the return of Phil Jurkovec. Last week’s 41-30 win over Georgia Tech was what I expected all year when I picked the Eagles to go over their season win total. With a win here, they’d inch ever closer to that feat and I think they get it.

Pick: Boston College -1.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Georgia Tech +18; Over/Under 57.5

One thing I learned about Notre Dame last week is they’re not spectacular. They just do everything they do better than you. It certainly helped that Brennan Armstrong didn’t play, but they’re like a snake that will slowly suffocate its prey until all of a sudden it submits. That’s what they’ll do to Georgia Tech. They’ll sustain drives of their own, score when they have chances, and keep the Yellow Jackets from doing the same. We’ll look up and realize it’s midway through the 4th quarter and Notre Dame is up by 20. Add to that, they need to look impressive on the scoreboard, so they’ll be no let up today in South Bend.

Pick: Notre Dame -18

Virginia Cavaliers @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh -14.5; Over/Under 66

I’m really confused by this line. The line seems to suggest Brennan Armstrong isn’t going to play, while the total suggests that he is. If he doesn’t play, there is no way this game approaches 66 points. If he plays, you can’t tell me that Virginia is over a two touchdown dog. Still, the play has to be on the total. Even if he plays, 66 is a lot of points. Given he could be rusty and Virginia is such a big underdog, the value rests on the under.

Pick: Under 66

Syracuse Orange @ N.C. State Wolfpack
N.C. State -11.5; Over/Under 49.5

Syracuse has been a surprise this year, but they turned into what I thought they would be last week in their 41-3 loss to Louisville. The running game couldn’t get anything going and the Orange aren’t going to do much when that’s the case. And that will be the case this week when they go up against the best rush defense in the ACC in N.C. State. I like the under as the Wolfpack should be able to control the game from jump, but laying the points will be the play here. Last week, Syracuse gave up 41 to Louisville, and if they just score 10, this game goes over. I’m a little worried that can happen again.

Pick: N.C. State -11.5

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Miami -7.5; Over/Under 56

I’m going to make this easy. VaTech is not very good. They’ve “fired” their coach and can’t wait to get this season over with. They’re going to get blown out by Miami, so laying the 7.5 here is easy. But, and I’m going to get you all prepared for this. They will somehow start caring and become good again the moment the final whistle blows in Miami and come into Scott Stadium next week focused and ready to finish their season on a high. You know I’m not telling you anything you don’t know already.

Pick: Miami -7.5

Record: 40-35