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ACC Basketball Betting Preview: Homestretch Edition

Only a couple more weeks to get things right

NCAA Basketball: Duke at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

It wasn’t a great week, but 2-2 isn’t in the red and that’s better than any of the previous three weeks. We have a huge slate with six games on tap so let’s get to it.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes
KP: Miami +5, O/U 137
Vegas: Miami +3.5, O/U 137

After almost a season’s worth of watching Miami, I think I have them figured out. Bet them at home against good teams, bet against them away or against bad teams. The only question here is whether Georgia Tech is a good team or a bad team? Honestly, I really like this Yellow Jacket squad. They’ve played Virginia tough both times, play good defense and between Jose Alvarado and Moses Wright will have the best two players on the floor. And that is why I’ll take the Hurricanes to cover at home.

Pick: Miami +3.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse Orange
KP: Syracuse -3, O/U 151
Vegas: Syracuse -2.5, O/U 149

Given my betting futility this year, it’s likely I’m terrible at betting lots of teams this season. But I feel like I’m losing every time I lay a bet on the Orange and Fighting Irish. Indeed, looking back my record betting these teams’ games is 3-8. Syracuse has been good at home and I generally give Notre Dame more credit than they probably deserve. Ultimately with a spread this tight, I just don’t have confidence Notre Dame can actually win the game, therefore I’ll take the Orange.

Pick: Syracuse -2.5

N.C. State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
KP: Wake Forest +1, O/U 141
Vegas: Wake Forest +1.5, O/U 140

Talk about two teams I never seem to get right. Call it a hunch though, I like the Demon Deacons here. I’m not putting too much into their 24 point loss to Duke this week as I think the Blue Devils were riding some energy after the Jalen Johnson news. Wake Forest is a young team and while they haven't translated it into wins, have been a much tougher beat than their box scores may have led on. N.C. State however is all over the map. They’re going to play ball-hawking defense, and the trees down low are a load to deal with, but ultimately they’ve been a disappointment this year. I like Wake here and will take the money line instead of +1.5 to save the juice.

Pick: Wake Forest ML

Florida State Seminoles @ Pittsburgh Panthers
KP: Pitt +7, O/U 149
Vegas: Pitt +6.5, O/U 146

I’ll probably regret this pick as it does smell of recency bias, but how can you not like the Seminoles? Justin Champagnie is fantastic for Pitt, but Florida State will be able to throw twelve different bodies at him and make other Panthers beat them. For Florida State, I don’t care who it is, everyone can beat you. MJ walker is the only Seminole playing over 64% of minutes. For comparison, Virginia has five guys who play more of the teams’ minutes. This is the time of year Florida State is at their best and I like them to roll.

Pick: Florida State -6.5

Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -1, O/U 137
Vegas: North Carolina -5.5, O/U 140

I was excited to see the KenPom line only North Carolina -1 seeing as Louisville hasn’t played a game since February 1st. But, it seems as if the books and bettors have caught on to teams struggling in games coming off a COVID pause. However, I think the line has gone too far. North Carolina isn’t a very good basketball team and we’ve watched how they struggle against a pack-line defense. Louisville is talented enough to hang with the Tar Heels and are probably the better team overall. They may start out slow, but as long as they can hang tight, I think they can keep it close if not pull out the win.

Pick: Louisville +5.5

Virginia Cavaliers @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke +1, O/U 133
Vegas: Duke +2, O/U 132

A lot has been made about how Johnson “opting out” makes Duke a better team and while I agree, better is still relative. Duke isn’t very good and gets a visit from a Virginia team coming off a drubbing at the hands of Florida State. They won’t take any visit to Cameron Indoor lightly especially after having five days to sit on the loss to the Seminoles. The total actually scares me since I don’t think Duke plays much defense, but I love the fact that the public has bought into this narrative that Duke is all of a sudden going to be poised to make a run.

Pick: Virginia -2

Season Total: ATS (12-15-1), O/U (4-10-1), Total (16-25-1)