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ACC Weekend Betting Preview: Everyone but UVA edition

Your weekly guide of what not to do

NCAA Basketball: Duke at Louisville Courier Journal-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a frustrating year. High hopes in the preseason have given way to lapses of judgement and some bad luck . No, I’m not talking about Virginia basketball, I’m talking about my betting record. I’ve thought long and hard about packing it in for the year, but then I asked myself who would tell the people what not to do. I know, I’m a giver. On to this week’s picks to fade.

Syracuse Orange @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
KP: Georgia Tech -5, O/U 147
Vegas: Georgia Tech -4.5, O/U 144

And just like that, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets find themselves on a nice little three game winning streak that has them back in the bubble conversation. They’re back at home where they’ve been almost unbeatable in the ACC over the last couple years, winning their last 13 games against teams not named Virginia. The combination of Jose Alvarado outside and Moses Wright inside can crack the Syracuse 2-3 zone. The Orange meanwhile looked to be a team that might compete for an at-large bid but reminded us this past week they are shell of the program they used to be.

Pick: Georgia Tech -4.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College Eagles
KP: Boston College +4, O/U 150
Vegas: Boston College +7.5, O/U 149

The Irish stay on the road coming off two tough losses to Syracuse and Louisville. BC isn’t either of those teams. Scott Spinelli will be making his Boston College coaching debut after Jim Christian was fired last weekend. While the responsibility ultimately falls on the coach since he recruits and coaches the players, I’m not sure what else Christian could have done. The honest truth is this BC team isn't very good. With a lame duck coach and a team probably just looking to be done with the season, it would be silly not to take Notre Dame.

Pick: Notre Dame -7.5

Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson -13, O/U 125
Vegas: Clemson -13, O/U 128.5

On the surface a 13 point spread seems like an auto-fade, but the fact is the Tigers would have covered that number in three of their last four games and Miami has not covered that number in their last two. The two teams played earlier in the year with Clemson barely escaping, winning by one in Coral Gables. I’m going to go with my gut though and not overthink it. Double Digits spreads are just too tough in the ACC.

Pick: Miami +13

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: VaTech -11, O/U 133
Vegas: VahTech -10.5, O/U 132.5

Aaaand, another double digit spread. VahTech looked bad Tuesday in a home loss to Georgia Tech, coming off a 17 day pause. Now they face a Wake Forest team that has lost four straight. And like Miami, they have not covered this spread in their last three outings. VahTech shook off the rust Tuesday and should be ready to take advantage of a bottom-of-the-ACC team. But a double-digit spread is still a double-digit spread. Wake Forest won’t provide any defense against the Hokies so I like the over.

Pick: Over 132.5

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina +2, O/U 152
Vegas: North Carolina +2, O/U 153

This line seems just too low to me. On paper, these two teams just don’t compare. Florida State is the best team in the ACC and UNC is struggling to stay on the bubble. I love the way Florida State can matchup with UNC down low and force their bigs to guard away from the basket. I also like that the way Leonard Hamilton utilizes his rotation meaning they’re less susceptible to off nights like other teams. UNC certainly has the talent to compete, I just like Florida State’s consistency.

Pick: Florida State -2

Louisville Cardinals @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -4, O/U 142
Vegas: Duke -5, O/U 141

Is Duke back? It’s certainly hard to bet against them right now. While I’d to take them to win, Louisville is still one of the better teams in the ACC. I do like the total though. These two played in the 130s the first time around, but I like this one to be more up and down. Duke’s offense flows much better with Jalen Johnson and they’re not going to play a lot of defense.

Pick: Over 141

Season Total: ATS (13-19-1), O/U (5-10-1), Total (18-29-1)