And...an 0-3 start to the Tournament. Honestly, it takes skill to be as bad as I’ve been at betting this season. So, I’m going to put that skill to good use today. I’m going to provide my thoughtful analysis to each game in the write ups below, then, I’ll just give the complete opposite pick of what I just wrote. That way, either my winning percentage improves or I can rest easy knowing my analysis was sound.
N.C. State Wolfpack vs. Syracuse Orange
KP: Syracuse -1, O/U 147
Vegas: Syracuse -3.5, O/U 146.5
You know how over the last 10-15 years, the craft brewing industry has exploded? Everyone is getting into the act and the biggest example of that is the proliferation of IPAs. Every brewery has multiple variants and most of them are just meh. But when an IPA is good, it’s really good. That’s a roundabout way of saying the Syracuse 2-3 zone is like an IPA. When it’s good, it’s really good. But when it’s not good, it’s pretty terrible. This year’s version of the 2-3 is not very good and they’ve relied on a strong offense to give themselves a chance at the NCAA Tournament. I like how N.C. State has come on the latter part of the year and they have some good young pieces. Getting the points with the Wolfpack is a bonus.
Pick: Syracuse -3.5
When I picked the under on yesterday’s Miami/Pittsburgh game, I did so not expecting Miami to score 1.14 points per possession. The game was back and forth and fairly entertaining. Today, they face a Clemson Tigers team who love to muck it up. Clemson will likely come out somewhat rusty, and Miami should be able to keep it close like they’ve done most of the season against good teams. Like we saw last night in the Notre Dame game, a nine point cover in an opener is a tall ask, so again I like the dog and the points.
Pick: Clemson -9
I’ll be completely honest, my rationale for taking the over yesterday was flawed. Duke is a much better team than Boston College and I should have figured that in the opener, the Blue Devils wouldn’t go all out if they got a lead. Thus I was counting on Boston College to score around 70 points. Of the three games yesterday that was the only one with bad analysis. Oh well, you live and learn. Today however, I think there’s a little too much excitement at the prospect of Duke running the table in the tournament. They’re good and playing decent basketball, but let’s not kid ourselves and think they’re all of a sudden a tournament team. Louisville has disappointed this year, but they’re still good and likely to make the tournament. Getting over two points in this spot is a little disrespectful. I’m pumping the brakes on the Blue Devils and think the Cardinals should cover.
Pick: Duke -2.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -4, O/U 150
Vegas: North Carolina -6.5, O/U 149.5
While I’m surprised Notre Dame needed a buzzer beater to take down Wake Forest Tuesday night, I should have known better than to lay eight points in a matchup of bad ACC teams. I still think Notre Dame can be competitive, but North Carolina is coming in strong and can make a run at winning the ACC Tournament. Notre Dame will either come out energized from last night’s win or a little emotionally drained. I think it’ll be the latter and don’t forget, even without a packed Greensboro Coliseum, the Tar Heels should have some home team support.
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5
Season Total: ATS (16-23-1), O/U (7-14-1), Total (23-37-1)