ACC Tournament Betting Preview: Quarterfinals Editions

When I started this column this morning, I was going to make a joke that a year ago I made up a fake line giving plus money to the ACC Tournament being cancelled due to COVID. But this year COVID would be a huge underdog and I’d lay the points with games being played. But now with news that Duke won’t be continuing in the tournament due to a positive COVID Test, it’s just further proof that I am terrible at betting. We’ll see what happens with the rest of the games, but for now we’ll just proceed as if everything is going off as planned.

Yesterday’s experiment told me nothing though 2-2 is better than 0-3. Since one day is a small data set and that was a fun way to watch the games yesterday, I’ll give it another try. So as a reminder I’ll give my write up based on thought and analysis, then just pick the opposite.

Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Cavaliers
KP: Virginia -4, O/U 134
Vegas: Virginia -5.5, O/U 130

I don’t know about you, but I had nightmares about Buddy Boeheim draining threes against Virginia like he did against the Wolfpack on Wednesday. The only saving grace is that I think Virginia matches up well to limit Syracuse’s good looks from deep. They chuck it a ton, but achieve open looks more through good perimeter passing as opposed to dribble drive kick outs (which is more the Packline’s kryptonite). I was really impressed with the Virginia defense on Saturday against Louisville and think they keep it going in Greensboro. So for that reason, I lean the under

Pick: Over 130

Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
KP: Georgia Tech -11, O/U 139
Vegas: Georgia Tech -9.5, O/U 138.5

My initial reaction when I saw this line was that I couldn’t see Georgia Tech covering this many points. I’ve always seen Georgia Tech as a team that plays tight games. However, during their six game winning streak, they’ve won three games by at least twelve points including a 27 point drubbing of these Hurricanes in Coral Gables. While I don’t think it will be that big a defeat, Georgia Tech should be able to handle a Miami team playing their third game in three days.

Pick: Miami +9.5

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State -3, O/U 155
Vegas: Florida State -4.5, O/U 151.5

CANCELLED DUE TO COVID

Pick: Duke +4.5

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: Virginia Tech +3, O/U 139
Vegas: Virginia Tech +3.5, O/U 141

And just like that, VaTech is back. After not playing since February 27th, we get to see how the Hokies are affected heading into the NCAA Tournament. It looks like the books have already baked in the COVID effect, but the question is, how big is that adjustment. You could make the argument UNC is playing some of their best basketball of the season and should get some home advantage in Greensboro. The Hokies came out flat in their first game back after a COVID pause in mid-February and I’m expecting the same thing once again.

Pick: VaTech +3.5

Season Total: ATS (18-25-1), O/U (7-14-1), Total (25-39-1)