While it wasn’t a winning week, at least it wasn’t a losing week. I’m to the point where I’m going to write up my plays and just do the opposite of what appears in this column. Therefore you might want to actually follow the picks below, or not. Either way, it’ll probably be wrong.
Florida State Seminoles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame +6, O/U 156
Vegas: Notre Dame +7.5, O/U 152.5
I’m not shocked to see Florida State only a six point favorite as they travel to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish. The Seminoles have locked up the ACC Regular Season Title and will be the number one seed in next week’s ACC Tournament. The Irish on the other hand are a proud bunch and will no doubt be playing hard for their Coach Mike Brey who was booed following Notre Dame’s eleven point loss to N.C. State on Wednesday night. Six is right about where I like the Seminoles, but if this line creeps much higher, I like the home team.
Pick: Notre Dame +7.5
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson -5, O/U 129
Vegas: Clemson -8, O/U 128.5
Talk about two teams ending the season on a different note. Clemson is looking to stay hot (they’ve won five of their last six) heading into the postseason while Pitt is struggling to keep their team together (Xavier Johnson and Au’Diese Toney have transferred). Clemson makes their money on the defensive end and while Justin Champagnie is incredible, he won’t be enough. Clemson -8 is a tall ask, but I do like the scoring to be low.
Pick: Under 128.5
Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville +2, O/U 122
Vegas: Louisville +2, O/U 121.5
This isn’t your father’s (older brother’s?) Louisville-Virginia matchup. Neither of the teams come in playing their typical defense-first styles. It’s most worrisome for Virginia who just can’t seem to keep the clamps down on teams when they themselves go through scoring slumps. Carlik Jones is good enough to get his against the Hoos and I totally expect Samuell Williamson to make about six threes. Virginia has been living in the sixties offensively and Louisville can get there with them.
Pick: Over 121.5
Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels
KP: North Carolina -3, O/U 149
Vegas: North Carolina -3, O/U 148
With at least one of these teams struggling each of the last two years, this matchup has taken on something of a different look recently. Duke probably needs this game to keep it’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive and while UNC CAN lose, they will face an uphill battle if they do. This is going to sound like a cop-out, but this game historically is very quirky. No matter how good each team is, the game always seems to be close. Therefore, I’m not going to overthink it and just take the points.
Pick: Duke +3
Season Total: ATS (15-21-1), O/U (6-11-1), Total (21-32-1)