Just like a team coming off a COVID pause, it was a bit of rusty start last week. But, I’ve got my betting legs under me and am looking to get into a rhythm. All odds are courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook so head on over there if you want to get in on the fun.
Duke showed earlier this week why they are the best team in the ACC. They traveled to Winston Salem to face a Wake Forest team who is on the up-and-up and dominated. AJ Griffin has been a revelation since joining the starting lineup and gives the Blue Devils some added firepower when they go “small.” N.C. State pulled out a solid win on the road against Louisville and while I don’t expect them to make 12 three-pointers, I do expect them to be able to score with the Blue Devils. Duke should win, but if they don’t, it’s because the Wolfpack outscored them. (I mean yes, that much is obvious. But if State wins, it’ll be a high-flying affair.)
Pick: Over 150.5
I can’t seem to get Syracuse right. They’re 8-8, play terrible defense, yet I’m terrified of their offense and if they’re firing on all cylinders can beat anyone in the ACC. Florida State meanwhile has struggled away from Tallahassee with their only win being a two-point shootout victory over N.C. State. These two teams are capable of playing multiple tempos, so the total scares me. I don’t like it, but I’m taking the home team in ‘Cuse to cover.
Pick: Syracuse -2.5
Last weekend, I made the mistake of taking the under in the Pitt/BC game thinking their offenses are so pedestrian, there was no way the game could go over. I was wrong. It turns out bad offenses can put up points against bad defenses. Well, Louisville doesn’t have a bad defense. Look for the Cardinals to put the clamps on the Panthers and get their tempo keeping this one under the 133.5
Pick: Under 133.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Virginia Cavaliers
KP: Virginia -3; Over/Under 129
DraftKings Sportsbook: Virginia -3.5; Over/Under 129
As bad as it’s been for Virginia, they’re still 4-2 in the ACC. Wake Forest took one on the chin after they were a trendy pick to spring an upset over the Blue Devils. The Demon Deacons are still pretty good and I can’t yet trust Virginia to cover a spread like this. Wake will try to get it up and down and Virginia should be able to stifle them, but overall the Hoos won’t be able to run away with it. Wake can win, so give me the points in a close game.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5
Virginia Tech comes into the game having lost three in a row while Notre Dame has won six straight. The Hokies have been nothing but a disappointment (evergreen statement), but I still think they’re pretty good. Notre Dame has been what I thought they’d be after starting the year slow. I think things level out and VaTech gets a win in a game they have to win to turn around their season.
Pick: VaTech -6.5
Remember that note about bad offenses playing against good (ok, maybe just sufficient) defenses. That’s what we have here as Boston College travels to Clemson. Clemson hasn’t hit their implied total in over a month and I think they can keep BC at bay. The spread is about right and I think Clemson plays this one in the high 60s, so the under is the play.
Pick: Under 137
We haven’t seen North Carolina since they ended their losing streak to our Hoos last Saturday. The game was more indicative of Virginia’s inability to keep up with North Carolina vice an impressive performance from the ‘Heels. I still think Georgia Tech is much better than their record indicates and Michael Devoe can will his way to keeping the Jackets in this one. My thought is they muck it up and do just enough to keep the game under double digits.
Pick: Georgia Tech +12.5
Season Total: ATS (3-5), O/U (2-4), Total (5-9)