This week has been a stark reminder to look for lines early and often and if you feel you have a lean, jump on it. With the uncertainty around Hurricane Ian, lines were all over the place. Sometimes we can take advantage of that. We’re onto conference play so we know a little more about each of these teams. A full ACC slate awaits, so let’s get after it.
Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles
Boston College +13.5; Over/Under 51
I’m glad to see Louisville starting to confirm some of my preseason optimism as they got an easy cover over USF last week. Now they hit the road to face a Boston College team who got waxed in Tallahassee a week ago. I was surprised how non competitive the Eagles were. But this game’s at home. Louisville’s offense has been really good, but the key is still putting pressure on Malik Cunningham. The Eagles have the defensive front to do that as well as keep the Cardinal game in check. Louisville should get the win, but I like getting almost two TDs.
Pick: Boston College +13.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Florida State Seminoles
Florida State -6.5; Over/Under 66
It’s an epic weekend in the ACC Atlantic Division with Clemson and NC State doing battle, but this matchup between Wake Forest and Florida State is no slouch. Florida State has been much better than many had expected and Wake Forest played well enough to win against Clemson a week ago. I like Florida State, but I’m not sure they’re back to being one of the top teams in the ACC. Wake Forest is for real. Sam Hartman may be the best QB in the conference and they are legit. Six and a half points is too many points for teams that are at worst equals.
Pick: Wake Forest +6.5
Virginia Tech Hokies @ North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina -9; Over/Under 56
What are we doing with these two teams? North Carolina can’t stop anybody, but can VaTech do anything offensively. The game is likely to be played on a slow track after Hurricane Ian dumps a ton of water on Chapel Hill, and the total has been all over the place. It started over 58 dipped to the low fifties, but has leveled off around 56. I wish I would have gotten the number earlier in the week since I don’t think conditions matter. Neither of these squads is likely to take the air out of the ball regardless of the conditions, so I think there should still be some points scored.
Pick: Over 56
Virginia Cavaliers @ Duke Blue Devils
Duke -2.5; Over/Under 52.5
Unlike the VT/UNC game being played down the street, this game could grind to a halt due to the wet field. Virginia wants to play fast and runs a predominantly pass heavy offense while Duke is much more balanced. The key is Duke sustains long drives. As long as they do that and Virginia runs it more often than they have recently, I don’t think this one gets to the number.
Pick: Under 52.5
NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers
Clemson -6.5; Over/Under 45
NC State was able to pull off the upset last year, but couldn’t cash in on winning the Coastal. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship game, but this is still Clemson’s to lose. The defenses will get top billing but DJ Uiagalelei is starting to find his groove and Sam Hartman was able to move the ball against Clemson. Devin Leary is no Sam Hartman, but there should still be some points. Give me the over.
Pick: Over 45
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ PIttsburgh Panthers
Pitt -22; Over/Under 48
The Geoff Collins era is over at Georgia Tech, so what are we going to get from the Jackets? I don’t think it can get worse. Last week against UCF, Georgia Tech left some points on the field. The defense won’t do anything to slow down the Pitt offense, but teams have been moving the ball on the Panthers. I don't think the game is remotely close, but Georgia Tech does come out firing.
Pick: Over 48