I really thought the bye week would be a good opportunity for the UVA offense to get right, particularly because the mistakes haven’t necessarily been with the scheme. But against Georgia Tech, the same problems kept plaguing the Cavaliers from really getting going. Drops and turnovers will kill any momentum even the best teams can muster. Miami’s offense is very similar. They move the ball well racking up yards, but turnovers and penalties keep them from putting points on the board. Both defenses are good enough to make the other team pay for those mistakes, so I see this game staying under.
Pick: Under 48.5
Syracuse had Clemson on the ropes last week, so much that the Tigers switched from D.J. Uiagalelei to Cade Klubnik. But it wasn’t the Clemson QB switch that spelled the difference. Syracuse couldn’t stop the Tiger rushing attack and were only in the game because Clemson turned it over four times. That won’t happen this week. Notre Dame might have a better running game and they won’t turn it over. Syracuse is still really good, but the Irish will be too much.
Pick: Notre Dame +1
I hear it’s beautiful this time of year in New England which is about as much as I can say about this game. The Huskies like to run it while the Eagles like to throw it. But with an Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush of -0.07, the Huskies run it “better” than the Eagles throw it (EPA per pass of -0.16). Neither team has done much on the scoreboard all year and when you have a low scoring game give me the home team running the ball to cover a big number.
Pick: UConn +7.5
Big spread, conference game, this one has an implied total of 36-13 and I don’t see it getting to that. Florida State will find easier sledding after having to face Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson in their last three, and will get right against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets came back to earth losing to our Hoos last week and will put up a fight, but it won’t be enough. Florida State will win this game by 2-3 touchdowns, but Georgia Tech be enough of a challenge to get to this number
Pick: Under 48
It’s Halloween weekend, so I’m going to do something very terrifying. I’m going to pick the under in a game featuring Sam Hartman. Hear me out. Wake Forest has a very good defense, particularly when they force teams into passing situations. However, even if Louisville falls behind, I don’t see them abandoning the run very quickly. If Louisville can get some pressure on Hartman and force a couple stops, I think they’re running game can keep the clocking running long enough to keep the game from getting completely out of control.
Pick: Under 65
Speaking of terrifying, I almost thought about doubling down and betting another terrifying under. But I’m not sure my heart could handle stepping in front of both Wake Forest and North Carolina totals under. This one will come down to turnovers. It’ll be back and forth, but UNC will come up with one more big play on defense allowing them to get one additional TD and enough to cover.
Pick: UNC -3