Serves me right for making fun of the ACC. In yesterday’s ACC Betting Preview, I joked that I was thankful for sides and totals since ACC teams were only favored in four of the twelve ACC/Big Ten Challenge games. Then the ACC goes out and picks up three wins (to add to the two they got Monday night) while I was only able to bag two. Never the less, six more games on the slate. Let’s see if me and the conference can close it out on a winning note.
On the surface, I figured this game would be an automatic under give the way Duke has been playing under Jon Scheyer. It’s a game between teams with paces in the high 200s, yet both can score in the 70’s pretty easily. Look no further than Ohio State’s game against Texas Tech last week. The game only featured 62 possessions, yet the teams combined to score 153 points. This one should play to a similar script and the 5 point spread suggests a fair number of free throws down the stretch.
Pick: Over 135.5
Regardless of the handicap, this figure to be an interesting matchup of teams with their eyes set on the NCAA Tournament. In both cases, the teams like to play quickly on offense while forcing their opponent to slow down on the defensive end. Both teams have been able to dictate the pace in games against weaker competition, but have been stifled in the couple of games against good teams. For that reason, I think the defensive paces win out and this game stays under the number.
Pick: Under 136.5
Last night, I made the mistake of thinking “I know better,” that Louisville would somehow figure it out. Then...they got run out of the gym. I was tempted to do the same with Florida State, figuring it can’t get worse. If the Seminoles burn me, the Seminoles burn me, but I’ll make them show me something first.
Pick: Purdue -16
This total has me scared. In a game between teams who like to play up tempo, I thought the total would be closer to 150. The way UNC is playing these days, I could see their offense laying an egg, but if this game is remotely close, it should go over this total.
Pick: Over 145
Just like the game between Miami and Rutgers, this one is a matchup of teams with almost mirror tempos. Both teams are very deliberate on the offensive and rely on efficiency to score. So, once again, I’m looking at the under. With neither team excelling on the offensive glass and neither team pushing the issue to get to the foul line, the better bet is neither team cracks 70.
Pick: Under 140.5
Coming off a 17 point win over Florida State, the Huskers get another shot at an ACC team. While Boston College may not be that much better than Florida State, Nebraska isn’t that good. While they’re at home, there’s nothing they do that jumps off the page as impressive. That’s not the profile of team I want to lay six points with.
Pick: Boston College +6
Season Total: ATS (1-3-0), O/U (44-2-0), Total (5-7-0)