The Virginia Cavaliers kick off ACC play this weekend against Florida State and after rolling through their non-conference slate thus far, are looking like the days of old Tony Bennett UVA, primed for a top spot in the NCAA Tournament.
As a refresher, when the NCAA Tournament committee convenes to set the NCAA Tournament bracket, they use the “NET” rankings to determine who receives the at large bids and seed lines. A team’s NET ranking is comprised of a formula with a whole host of computer numbers incorporated (KenPom, RPI, etc.) and the team’s schedule and results from that year make up the team’s NET Report.
The NET Report is broken up into four “Quadrants.” Quad 1 shows the results of the team’s games at home vs teams ranked 1-30, neutral court games against 1-50, and away games against 1-75. Here’s how the Quads break down:
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home: 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161-357, Neutral 201-357, Away 241-357
The official NET Rankings from the NCAA typically come out at the end of November or early December since most teams will have more data points for rankings. Since the official rankings haven’t come out yet, for this exercise, Kenpom’s rankings were used since it is more of a predictive metric.
Here’s what UVA’s NET Report (using KP’s rankings) looks like leading into their game against FSU on Saturday:
After some truly dreadful starts from other ACC teams, UVA’s Quad 1 and 2 games have taken a hit and now there are just 15 remaining on the schedule (there were 21 total two weeks ago).
Louisville and FSU’s precipitous drop will hurt all of the ACC resumes this year. It is quite possible two home ACC games will be considered Quad 4 games, which isn’t good for anyone.
The biggest game left on the schedule is obviously the title with the Houston Cougars in two weeks. Kenpom predicts a two points UVA victory, but both teams will likely be undefeated and ranked in the top three of the AP poll making it possibly the biggest game of the season.