As we close the door on 2022, we delight in that 2023 brings us almost nothing but ACC basketball matchups the rest of the way. The Albanys and Monmouths are behind us and it’s nothing but top half (according to KenPom) college basketball matchups the rest of the way. Except Louisville. While some ACC teams got their weekends started yesterday, we still have five matchups as we prepare to say goodbye to 2022. Head over Draftkings Sportsbook and end your year with some ACC betting action.
In their five games against teams rated in the top 100 of KenPom, the Yellow Jackets have failed to score more than 66 points. I don’t see that changing today when they face the Virginia defense. They don’t turn it over on offense and they don’t turn teams over on defense. They don’t pound the offensive glass and they don’t force the issue and get to the free throw line. Virginia will be happy to play them possession for possession so I expect a game with little scoring. I’m not sure if the Hoos can cover the 9.5, but I do think they put the clamps on the home team and we walk away under this total.
A couple weeks ago, I vowed I would fade Louisville until they gave me a reason not to. While they aren’t doing anything to make me think otherwise, it’s the books that have gone too far. Even at their worst, they were losing games within reach of this number. Enter Kentucky who’s a mess in their own right. Not nearly to the degree of the Cardinals, but this Wildcat squad has been pretty disappointing up to this point in the year. These teams don’t like each other, so it’s possible John Calipari and the ‘Cats lay the hammer and don’t let up, but at least for one game this season, the Cardinals play with pride to lose by less than 20.
Pick: Louisville +23.5
Coming off their win over Duke earlier in the week, I don’t expect a let down from the Demon Deacons, but I do think the Hokies have a game plan to reign in that energy. Virginia Tech has only played one game all season above 70 possessions, so I look for them to slow things down. It will all depend on how Wake Forest responds. Given the early tip time, I look for lower scoring, especially in the early going. The teams will settle in, but I still like the game to stay under the number.
Pick: Under 142
If it weren’t for Louisville, we’d be talking about how bad it’s been for the Seminoles. However, this is still too many points. With as bad as it’s gone, they’ve covered 17.5 in every game this year. Leonard Hamilton is playing with less than a full deck, but it’s still Leonard Hamilton. Duke will look to make a statement against a bad team at home, but this isn’t your normal Duke team as well. I don’t see them just being able to run away from anyone in the ACC, even a bad team at home.
Pick: Florida State +17.5
I don’t think there’s a team I read worse than Syracuse. When I pick against them, they cover. When I take or lay they points, they lay an egg. So this year, I’m going to explain what I think will happen in Syracuse games, then just go with opposite. The spread and total are about right. I worry about Boston College’s ability to score. They’ll want to slow the game down and I see them having trouble getting to 60 points. So if I think the spread is right, I’m led to take the under with Syracuse winning 70-60 or something like that. So yup, I’m taking the Over.
Pick: Over 133
Season Total: ATS (2-6-0), O/U (9-6-0), Total (11-12-0)