4-3 a week ago could have been 6-1, but just as easily could have been 2-5. It took late flurries of points to get the overs in the Virginia/Miami and Duke/UNC games, but as the season comes to a close, we’re getting ever so closer to .500. A 7-0 week gets us there. Ha! I know, dreaming. As always, lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Before their loss to Duke last Saturday, you had to go all the way back to November 12th to find a game in Chapel Hill the Tar Heels didn’t win by double digits. Honestly, I was surprised by that stat since I’m not really impressed by this North Carolina squad. But what is going on with the Seminoles? They’re in the midst of a five game losing streak punctuated by a loss this week to lowly Pitt. Still, I think water finds its level. There’s value on Florida State in a game that might tell us a lot about these teams going forward.
Pick: Florida State +8.5
The Demon Deacons have scored at least 76 points in all of their home games this year, except for their loss to Duke. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have scored at least 72 points in every game except one this season that featured at least 70 possessions. However, in six of their seven losses on the year, they’ve scored less than 64 points in each. I think Wake finds a way to win and unless they win by 10-15, I think this one stays under.
Pick: Under 150
N.C. State Wolfpack @ Pittsburgh Panthers
KP: Pittsburgh -1; Over/Under 137
DraftKings Sportsbook: Pittsburgh +1.5; Over/Under 135.5
Once again, perhaps it’s that N.C. State beat the Hoos earlier this season, but I just can’t fathom that the Wolfpack are as bad as they’ve been playing. The record speaks for itself though as N.C. State has dropped all five of their games since the night in Raleigh they beat Virginia. Pittsburgh is what I thought they’d be and after they beat Florida State on Wednesday they have a couple decent wins. Those wins came at home and I think playing in their home arena helps this week. I think they can take down the ‘Pack.
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5
Coming off their win over the Blue Devils on Monday, there’s a lot of new found hope surrounding this Virginia team. That hope could also bleed into the markets, so I think we’re getting an inflated line on Virginia in this one against the Yellow Jackets. I’m leaning to taking the points with Georgia Tech, but think the play is on the total. I can see Virginia coming out flat which would keep scoring. However, I could also see them keep the momentum and if that’s the case, they’ll leave their mark on the defensive end. Regardless, I think only one team cracks the 60’s.
Pick: Under 122.5
Over the last couple weeks, I’ve really been taking advantage of Boston College’s inability to score. Duke has also been playing a lot lower scoring games this year than they have in the past. The Blue Devils should stifle the Eagles and while I do worry Duke wins by 20, I think they can roll but stay in the mid 70s themselves.
Pick: Under 140
In the “I can’t get these teams right” Bowl, the Orange travel to Blacksburg to face the Hokies. I’m 1-10 in this column picking the games featuring one of these two teams. So, if there’s a pick to do the opposite of this week, it’s this game. I’m looking at this total. I can’t see VaTech letting the pace get out of hand in Cassell Colissuem. Syracuse will force the Hokies to shoot from the outside, but they’ll frustrate the Orange on defense and limit their ability to get up and down the floor.
Pick: Under 145.5
There’s nothing about what we’ve seen from these teams this season that makes me think Clemson should beat Notre Dame, but I think they do. The Tigers looked outmatched Thursday against Duke, but that was likely due to the letdown of letting a victory slip away Tuesday night against UNC. The Tigers are better than their record indicates and I do think Notre Dame is playing a little out over its skis.
Pick: Clemson -2.5
Season Total: ATS (9-15), O/U (8-9), Total (17-24)