In a season that has seen far more downs than it has ups, the Virginia Cavaliers still find themselves on the outside looking in on most NCAA Tournament prognostications.
Sitting at 16-9 overall and 10-5 in a down ACC, that probably is not a surprise to most, but the four game winning streak they’ve put together over the last two weeks has been.
Thanks to a strong performance against Miami and a miraculous win in Cameron Indoor, the Hoos are starting to creep into the NCAA Tournament conversation, so it is time to take a look into UVA’s NET team sheet.
As a refresher, when the NCAA Tournament committee convenes to set the NCAA Tournament bracket, they use the “NET” rankings to determine who receives the at large bids and seed lines. A team’s NET ranking is comprised of a formula with a whole host of computer numbers incorporated (KenPom, RPI, etc.) and the team’s schedule and results from that year make up the team’s NET Report.
The NET Report is broken up into four “Quadrants.” Quad 1 shows the results of the team’s games at home vs teams ranked 1-30, neutral court games against 1-50, and away games against 1-75. Here’s how the Quads break down:
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home: 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161-357, Neutral 201-357, Away 241-357
Here’s what UVA’s NET Report looks like leading into their game against Virginia Tech Monday night:
Overall, the Cavaliers’ 6-5 record among Quad 1 and Quad 2 games is pretty strong, but UVA will run into some problems with four Quad 3 losses.
Luckily three of the remaining five games are Quad 1 opportunities and all three come against teams UVA has already beaten this season. The other two games are a road trip to Louisville that will hopefully remain a Quad 2 game and a home game against Florida State that will hopefully remain a Quad 3 game. Both Louisville and FSU are in the midst of extended losing streaks that could see their ranking fall pushing those games into Quad 3 & 4 territory.
For the Hoos to remain in the NCAA Tournament picture, they obviously can’t take anymore Quad 3 or 4 losses, and that will be true in the ACC Tournament as well. If UVA wants to feel like they have a chance to play into March they’ll likely need to go at least 3-2 over the final stretch.