A 5-2 week was just what the doctor ordered, however I was prepared for the worst when at 2:15 PM (15 minutes into the Florida State/UNC game) I checked in to find the Seminoles down 24-1 when I had them +8.5. Needless to say the day got better, but I wasn’t confident. There are seven more games today as we hone in our betting skills to get ready for March.
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve really been targeting Boston College totals. It burned me in their game against Notre Dame this week, but here’s a another good opportunity. The problem with betting the total though is that Syracuse could go off for 90, especially in the dome. Some books don’t offer team totals, but if you can find it (DraftKings Sportsbook does), I like the BC under.
Pick: Under 68.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
KP: Wake Forest -6; Over/Under 142
DraftKings Sportsbook: Wake Forest -5.5; Over/Under 142.5
Raise you hand if you, at the beginning of the year, thought this game would be a matchup of two of the best teams in the ACC. Now put your hand down. I’ve been surprised by both of these squads, however watching their games, I just don’t see it with one of them. How Notre Dame is 12-3 in the ACC is beyond me, however I like what I see from Wake Forest. The Deacs are a different team at home and I like them to get this W and even cover the number.
Pick: Wake Forest -5.5
Back when Louisville fired Chris Mack, I thought the Cardinals may play inspired against Duke, but then they’d be a team to fade the rest of the season. Unfortunately, I’ve not taken my own advice. Now they host a Clemson Tiger team who has lost five straight. I have no idea what to do here, so I’m going to play the total. Clemson hasn’t scored more than 64 points in three of the last four while Louisville has scored more than 70 points only once in their last 11 games.
Pick: Under 140
What was that North Carolina? After blitzing Florida State last weekend and continuing their streak of double digit wins at home, the Tar Heels laid an egg against Pittsburgh. Virginia Tech meanwhile has racked up six wins in a row and are playing like the team I thought they’d be all season long. Coming off games against Virginia, I like to be on the over in a team’s next game. Virginia Tech will look to stay hot and North Carolina will be obliged to match them shot for shot in what I think will be a high scoring game.
Pick: Over 145
In a game we saw just two weeks ago, the Hoos travel to Coral Gables to face off with the Hurricanes. It’s a game Virginia probably needs to win if they have any hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I like the matchup for Virginia as Miami doesn’t have much to be able to slow down Jayden Gardner. But on the flip side, Miami’s guards are the types of players that give the pack-line fits. I like that this total has been creeping down since it opened putting a little value on the over.
Pick: Over 129
What do you do with Florida State? After a six game winning streak, the ‘Noles went on a six game slide culminating in that debacle in Chapel Hill last weekend. They got a one point win over Clemson at home on Tuesday, but now have to travel back to Tobacco Road to face the Blue Devils. Duke is Duke and they’ll probably win but 15 points is just too many points against a team with the pedigree of the Seminoles.
Pick: Florida State +15.5
And that brings us to this week’s prime time ACC marquee tilt between (checks notes) Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Ok, not exactly the high stakes affair we’re used to in this conference. Don’t look now though, the Panthers have managed to put together a three game winning streak. Still 2.5 is hard to lay with a team as bad as Pitt. Georgia Tech has the best player on the floor in Michael Devoe and in matchups against bad teams, that’s good enough for me.
Pick: Georgia Tech +2.5
Season Total: ATS (10-17), O/U (12-9), Total (22-26)