These are unfamiliar waters for the Virginia Cavaliers basketball program as they head into the final weekend of the season.
It has been five years since Virginia wasn’t the No. 1 or 2 seed coming into the ACC Tournament. Back in 2016-17, UVA tied with Duke for 5th in the conference, but was the 6th seed in the ACC tournament thanks to a home loss to the Blue Devils.
It has been even longer since UVA has been in the position it finds itself in which is destined to be the 6 seed or worse. In 2010-11, the Hoos tied for 7th with Maryland after a 7-9 conference record and ended up with the 8 seed in Greensboro.
No, this season has not gone as expected and UVA finds itself staring down a four game win or go home set in Brooklyn next week if they want to extend their season into the NCAA Tournament.
Here is what we know about the ACC seeds heading into the final weekend.
No. 1 - Duke has clinched the ACC regular season title for the first time in forever (2010).
No. 2 - Notre Dame or UNC. Notre Dame clinches the two seed either with a win or if UNC loses to Duke. We’ll give it to ND.
No. 3 - Likely Miami or UNC. Assuming Duke beats UNC and Miami can beat Syracuse, Miami will vault into the 3 spot. We’ll give it to Miami. (We discovered Miami is not the betting favorite against Cuse, but we believe in the Canes.)
No. 4 - UNC or Miami, but we’ve given Miami the 3 seed, so UNC gets the 4.
No. 5 - Wake Forest. Wake has already clinched the 5 spot.
No. 6 - UVA or Virginia Tech. If UVA beats Louisville, they are the No. 6 seed by virtue of record against Duke. We’re a UVA blog, UVA gets the nod.
No. 7 - VT
No. 8 - Florida State or Syracuse. FSU gets the 8 seed if they beat NC State or if Syracuse loses to Miami. One of those should happen, so we assume FSU will be the 8.
No. 9 - Syracuse
No. 10 - No. 13 - A toss up between Clemson, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Boston College.
No. 14 - NC State and Georgia Tech - If NC State can beat FSU or if BC can beat GT, NC State gets the nod. A True toss up on both fronts, but KenPom has GT beating BC and FSU beating NC State. GT gets the No. 14 seed
No. 15 - NC State probably.
Here’s how the bracket will look if favorites win this weekend:
Being the 6 seed won’t be a walk in the park for the Hoos as they could have to face a Louisville team they would have beaten days earlier. Facing a Miami squad they’ve beaten twice could help morale, but the team waiting on the other side will have beaten UVA already once this season with a trip to the finals on the line.
In the last 15 years of the ACC Tournament, no seed higher than Duke No. 5 seed in 2017 has won the ACC Tournament, but that Duke team had to win four games like this year’s UVA squad will have to. In those last 15 years, only five times has a team higher than a four seed even played in the Championship game.
The Cavaliers will have their work cut out for them in Brooklyn next week.